河北旱碱麦不同生育时期气候变化及对产量影响的双重量化分析  

Double Quantitative Analysis of Climate Change and Its Effect on Yield of Drought-Alkali-Resistant Wheat in Hebei Province

作　　者：秦俊灵 索春男 任妙春 李琛 孙萌萌 魏秀梅 QIN Junling;SUO Chunnan;REN Miaochun;LI Chen;SUN Mengmeng;WEI Xiumei(Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050021,China;China Meteorological Administration Xiong an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Xiong an New Area,Hebei 071800,China;Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Cangzhou,Hebei 061000,China;Huanghua Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province,Huanghua,Hebei 061100,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021 [2]中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室,河北雄安新区071800 [3]河北省沧州市气象局,河北沧州061000 [4]河北省黄骅市气象局,河北黄骅061100

出　　处：《麦类作物学报》2025年第1期130-137,共8页Journal of Triticeae Crops

基　　金：沧州市科技局科研项目(222108006);沧州市气象局科研开发项目(23CZ03)。

摘　　要：为了探究河北旱碱麦不同生育时期气候变化特征及其对旱碱麦产量的影响,选取2009—2022年旱碱麦主产区气象观测资料和产量资料,利用四分位和气候倾斜率等方法对旱碱麦不同生育时期气候特征及变化趋势进行分析,再采用二次曲线法分离气象产量,利用灰色关联度法进行不同生育时期气象因子对旱碱麦产量影响的双重量化分析。结果表明:(1)旱碱麦各生育时期平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和日照时数均有明显的分布规律,而降水量变化较大;(2)旱碱麦不同生育时期各气象因子的变化趋势存在明显差异;(3)经单重量化分析,对旱碱麦气象产量影响最大的气象因子在播种期、分蘖期、越冬期和抽穗期均为降水量,出苗期和灌浆期均为日照时数影响最大,返青期为平均气温,拔节期为最低气温;(4)经双重量化分析,对旱碱麦气象产量影响排名前五的气象因子依次为分蘖期降水量、越冬期降水量、分蘖期最低气温、拔节期最低气温、抽穗期降水量。因此,河北旱碱麦种植应根据生育期降水情况采用保墒、灌水等水分管理措施,同时预防小麦分蘖期和拔节期的低温危害,以促进小麦生长发育和高产。In order to explore the climate change characteristics at different growth stages of drought-alkali-resistant wheat in Hebei and their impact on wheat yield,the meteorological observation data and yield data from the main production areas of drought-alkali-resistant wheat from 2009 to 2022 were collected,and various methods,including quartiles and climate slopes,were employed to analyze the climate characteristics and trends at different growth stages of drought-alkali-resistant wheat.Subsequently,the second-order curve method was used to separate meteorological yield,and the grey correlation degree method was applied for a dual quantitative analysis of the impact of meteorological factors on wheat yield during different growth stages.The results were as follows:(1)At each growth stage of drought-alkali-resistant wheat,there were clear distribution patterns for average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and sunshine hours.Precipitation was the most variable meteorological factor in the growth and development process of drought-alkali-resistant wheat.(2)There were significant differences in the trends of various meteorological factors at different growth stages of drought-alkali-resistant wheat.(3)Monofactor quantification revealed that precipitation at sowing stage,tillering stage,overwintering stage and heading stage,sunshine hours at seeding stage and grain filling stage,average temperature at reviving,minimum temperature at jointing stage had the greatest impact on the meteorological yield of drought-alkali-resistant wheat.(4)Dual quantification indicated that the top five meteorological factors affecting the meteorological yield of drought-alkali-resistant wheat,ranked as precipitation at tillering stage,precipitation at overwintering stage,minimum temperature at tillering stage,minimum temperature at jointing stage,and precipitation at heading stage.Therefore,in order to promote wheat growth and high yield in drought-alkali-resistant wheat planting areas in Hebei,some field water management

关 键 词：旱碱麦 气象因子 气象产量 灰色关联度 量化分析 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] S314