江西省造纸和纸制品行业碳排放影响因素分析  

Research on Green and Low Carbon Development of Paper and Paper Products Industry in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：李海霞 孙李媛[1,2,3,4] 谢运生 范焰焰[1,2,3,4] 陈旺 杨蕾 LI Haixia;XIE Yunsheng;SUN Liyuan;FAN Yanyan;CHEN Wang;YANG Lei(Institute of Energy Research,Jiangxi Academy of Sciences,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Carbon Neutralization Research Center,Nanchang 330096,China;Key Laboratory of Greenhouse Gas Accounting and Carbon Reduction of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330096,China;Jiangxi Carbon Neutral Technology Innovation Center,Nanchang 330096,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省科学院能源研究所,南昌330096 [2]江西省碳中和研究中心,南昌330096 [3]温室气体核算与碳减排江西省重点实验室,南昌330096 [4]江西省碳中和技术创新中心,南昌330096

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2024年第4期49-56,共8页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：中国工程院咨询研究项目(2023-01JXZD-02);江西省碳中和研究中心“双碳”科技创新项目(2022JXST04);江西省自然科学基金管理科学项目(20232BAA10011);江西省社会科学基金项目(23ZXST03);江西省社会科学“十四五”基金项目(24GL27)。

摘　　要：为加强造纸和纸制品行业低碳转型升级,如期实现江西省“双碳”目标。采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型估算并分析2013—2022年江西省造纸和纸制品行业碳排放量及影响因素,结果表明:1)江西省造纸和纸制品行业碳排放总体呈现增长趋势,年均增长率约为7%。2)资产和能源强度对江西省造纸和纸制品行业碳排放呈现促进作用,碳排放量影响的贡献率分别为134.23%和95.97%。3)资产使用效率和能源结构对碳排放呈现微弱的抑制影响,碳排放量影响的贡献率分别为-22.60%和-12.54%。基于江西省造纸企业实际情况从提升资产效率、降低能耗强度、加强绿色技术研发、探索循环经济等方面提出建议,以期为绿色低碳转型发展提供参考。In order to strengthen the low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the paper and paper products industry,Jiangxi province has achieved the"double carbon"goal as scheduled.The log-average Dirichlet Index(LMDI)model is used to estimate and analyze the carbon emissions and influencing factors of paper and paper products industry in Jiangxi province from 2013 to 2022.The results show that:1)The carbon emissions of paper and paper products industry in Jiangxi province are generally increasing,with an average annual growth rate of about 7%.2)Assets and energy intensity promote the carbon emissions of paper and paper products industries in Jiangxi province, and the contribution rates of carbon emissions are134.23% and 95.97% respectively. 3) Asset efficiency and energy structure have a weak inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,and the contribution rates of carbon emissions are -22.60% and -12.54% respectively. Based on the actual situation ofpaper enterprises in Jiangxi province, some suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving asset efficiency, reducingenergy consumption intensity, strengthening green technology research and development, and exploring circular economy,so as to provide reference for green and low-carbon transformation and development.

关 键 词：造纸和纸制品行业 对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型 碳排放 绿色低碳 江西省 

分 类 号：TK011[动力工程及工程热物理] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]