时空异质性视角下华北地区碳足迹评估及驱动因子分析  

Carbon Footprint Assessment and Analysis on Driving Factor in North China from the Perspective of Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity

作　　者：袁亮[1] 柴林 何伟军[1] 孔阳[1] 祁煜智 YUAN Liang;CHAI Lin;HE Weijun;KONG Yang;QI Yuzhi(School of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第1期70-79,共10页Ecological Economy

摘　　要：碳足迹是衡量碳排放的重要指标,削减碳足迹是实现“双碳”目标的前提条件。华北地区作为我国高耗能、高排放的集中区域,客观量化碳足迹并探究主要驱动因子对加快推进碳减排具有重要意义。为此,论文基于IPCC法对华北地区“十五”至“十三五”期间的碳足迹进行测算,运用标准差椭圆分析碳足迹的分布及转移特征,使用地理探测器识别碳足迹的主要驱动因子。研究发现:(1)“十五”至“十三五”期间碳足迹总量经历了“先增长—后下降”两个阶段,由“十五”期间的425452万吨上升至1066353万吨,而后逐渐下降到“十三五”期间的898908万吨。(2)标准差椭圆呈稳定的“南—北”分布,重心分布于山西大同和河北张家口之间,呈向西北方向偏移趋势,已偏移72.56千米。(3)能源强度、产业结构、城镇化率对碳足迹驱动因子解释力度较大,且关键交互因子均含有能源强度、产业结构、研发投入。华北地区不同时期碳足迹分布及影响因子存在时空差异,在制定碳减排政策时应充分考虑区域碳足迹的时空异质性。The carbon footprint is an important indicator of carbon emissions,and reducing the carbon footprint is a prerequisite for achieving the“dual carbon goal”.As a region with high energy consumption and emissions in China,it is of great significance to objectively quantify the carbon footprint and explore the main driving factors to accelerate carbon emission reduction in North China.This study aims to calculates the carbon footprint of North China from the“Tenth Five-Year Plan”to the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”using the IPCC method.It employs standard deviation ellipse analysis to examine the distribution and transfer characteristics of the carbon footprint,and applies geographic detectors to identify the main driving factors behind it.The study found that:(1)The total carbon footprint during the“Tenth Five-Year Plan”to the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”went through two stages of“first increase-then decrease”,rising from 4254.52 million tons during the“Tenth Five-Year Plan”to 10663.53 million tons,and then gradually decreasing to 8989.08 million tons during the“Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”.(2)The standard deviation ellipse shows a stable“south-north”distribution,with the center of gravity distributed between Shanxi Datong and Hebei Zhangjiakou,showing a trend of northwest deviation,which has deviated by 72.56 kilometers.(3)Energy intensity,industrial structure,and urbanization rate have a greater explanatory power for driving factors of the carbon footprint,and key interaction factors all involve energy intensity,industrial structure,and R&D investment.There are spatiotemporal differences in the distribution of carbon footprints and influencing factors in North China at different times,and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of regional carbon footprints should be fully considered when formulating carbon reduction policies.

关 键 词：碳足迹 驱动因子 时空特征 地理探测器 标准差椭圆 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]