欧盟碳关税对中国的经贸冲击及应对策略  

The Economic and Trade Impact of the EU Carbon Tax on China and Countermeasures

作　　者：董玮[1] 石晶晶 DONG Wei;SHI Jingjing(Economics School,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第1期89-98,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“碳中和目标下林农参与林业碳汇经营的现实路径与激励政策研究”(22CJY029)。

摘　　要：开征碳税对我国应对欧盟碳关税、促进产业绿色转型具有重要意义。论文基于投入产出法计算隐含碳排放强度,采用GTAP模型研究欧盟碳关税对我国的经贸冲击和我国开征碳税应对欧盟碳关税的实施效果。结果表明:我国不开征国内碳税时,随着欧盟碳关税税率的提高和征税范围的扩大,对我国经济贸易的冲击更大,有利于我国行业低碳转型;我国开征碳税后,从经济角度看,短期内碳税税率为10美元/吨和征税范围为CBAM覆盖范围内的行业时,对我国经济贸易的负面冲击较小。从低碳转型角度看,碳税税率为30美元/吨和仅对CBAM覆盖范围内的行业征税时,更加有利于我国高碳行业低碳转型。从整体角度看,我国对CBAM覆盖范围内的行业征收10美元/吨的碳税,更加有利于应对欧盟碳关税的威胁。The imposition of a carbon tax in China is of great significance for Chinese response to the EU carbon tariff and promotion of industrial green transformation.Based on the input-output method,the paper calculates the implicit carbon emission intensity and uses the GTAP model to study the economic and trade impact of the EU carbon tariff on China and the implementation effect of carbon tax in response to the EU carbon tariff.The results indicate that in the absence of a domestic carbon tax in China,the higher the EU carbon tariff rate and the broader the tax coverage,the more significant the economic and trade impact on China.This is conducive to low-carbon transformation;after China imposes carbon tax,from an economic perspective,the negative impact on economic and trade in the short term is relatively small when the carbon tax rate is 10 dollars per ton and the tax coverage is the industries covered by the CBAM.From the perspective of low-carbon transformation,the carbon tax rate of 30 dollars per ton and taxing only the industries covered by the CBAM are more conducive to low-carbon transformation.From the overall perspective,the imposition of a 10 dollars per ton carbon tax on the industries covered by the CBAM is more conducive to countering the threat of the EU carbon tariff.

关 键 词：碳关税 碳税 经济贸易 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]