农业保险发展助力我国农业新质生产力培育的效率评估及路径优化研究——基于DEA-Malmquist-Tobit模型的分析  

Research on the Efficiency Evaluation and Path Optimization of the Development of Agricultural Insurance to Help the Cultivation of Agricultural New Quality Productivity in China——Analysis Based on the DEA-Malmquist-Tobit Model

作　　者：李勇斌 刘殿国 魏春华[3] Li Yongbin;Liu Dianguo;Wei Chunhua

机构地区：[1]桂林学院金融与法律学院,广西桂林541010 [2]海南大学国际商学院,海南海口570228 [3]桂林航天工业学院管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《西南金融》2024年第11期59-73,共15页Southwest Finance

基　　金：2024年度广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目“农业保险对广西农民农村共同富裕的影响研究”(编号:2024KY1668)阶段性成果;2024年度广西人力资源社会保障课题“课外实践对广西高校毕业生就业能力的影响研究”(编号:GXRS-2024-168)阶段性成果;广西教育科学“十四五”规划民办高等教育专项课题“广西民办高校服务区域经济社会高质量发展的路径研究”(编号2023ZJY2261)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章利用我国2015—2022年省级面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist-Tobit模型研究了农业保险发展助力农业新质生产力培育的效率高低、动态变化趋势及驱动因素,结果发现:农业保险发展助力我国农业新质生产力培育的效率总体水平不高,呈现出先上升然后趋于稳定的状态,主要是规模效率较小引起的,并且区域差异较大,西部综合效率呈现出不断增长态势,中部呈现出先上升然后逐渐稳定趋势,而东部则是表现出先上升再下降的趋势;农业保险发展助力我国农业新质生产力培育的全要素生产率指数(MI)整体均值大于1,效率递增,而技术进步效率变化指数偏低是农业保险发展助力我国农业新质生产力培育的效率提升的主要制约因素;农业保险发展助力我国农业新质生产力培育的效率类型可分为四类,即潜力型(Ⅰ型)、朝阳型(Ⅱ型)、黄金型(Ⅲ型)、夕阳型(Ⅳ型);提升农业保险科技水平、增加农险机构数量、扩大农业科技研发投入、增强农业风险感知,是优化农业保险发展助力农业新质生产力培育效率的有效路径。Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2015 to 2022,this paper uses the DEAMalmquist-Tobit model to study the efficiency,dynamic change trend and driving factors of agricultural insurance development to help the cultivation of agricultural new quality productivity,and the results show that:the overall level of the efficiency of agricultural insurance development to help the cultivation of agricultural new quality pro⁃ductivity in China is not high,showing a state of first increasing and then stabilizing,which is mainly caused by the small scale efficiency.The comprehensive efficiency of the western region shows a growing trend,the compre⁃hensive efficiency of the central part shows a trend of first increasing and then gradually stable,and the compre⁃hensive efficiency of the eastern part shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.The overall average val⁃ue of the total factor productivity index(MI)of the development of agricultural insurance to help the cultivation of agricultural new quality productivity in China is greater than 1,and the efficiency margin increases.The low change index of technological progress efficiency is the main constraint for the development of agricultural insur⁃ance to improve the efficiency of China's agricultural new quality productivity cultivation.The efficiency types of agricultural insurance development to help the cultivation of agricultural new quality productivity in China can be divided into four categories,namely,potential type(type I),sunrise type(type II),golden type(type III),and sunset type(type IV).Improving the level of agricultural insurance technology,increasing the number of agricultural in⁃surance institutions,expanding investment in agricultural science and technology research and development,and enhancing agricultural risk perception are effective ways to optimize the development of agricultural insurance and help cultivate the efficiency of agricultural new quality productivity.

关 键 词：农业保险 新质生产力 全要素生产率 技术效率 农业风险 乡村振兴 粮食安全 农业强国 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]