基于信息量模型的云南禄丰地质灾害风险性评价  

Geological hazard risk assessment of Lufeng city in Yunnan province based on Information Model

作　　者：冯博[1,2] 程旭 范芳 卢辉雄[1,2] 李瑞炜 魏本赞[1,2] FENG Bo;CHENG Xu;FAN Fang;LU Huixiong;LI Ruiwei;WEI Benzan(Airborne Survey and Remote Sensing Center of Nuclear Industry,Shijiazhuang 050002,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Airborne Survey and Remote Sensing Technology,Shijiazhuang 050002,China)

机构地区：[1]核工业航测遥感中心,河北石家庄050002 [2]河北省航空探测与遥感技术重点实验室,河北石家庄050002

出　　处：《世界核地质科学》2024年第6期1260-1274,共15页World Nuclear Geoscience

基　　金：云南省重点区域地质灾害精细化调查与风险评价项目(编号:YNLH202011010793);核工业地质局生产中科研项目(编号:2023-20-5)联合资助;核工业航测遥感中心自主研发项目联合资助。

摘　　要：禄丰市位于云南省中部,区内地质环境复杂,地质灾害多发频发,严重威胁当地居民生命财产安全。以禄丰市为研究区,结合1∶5万地质灾害风险调查数据,基于GIS平台,采用信息量模型,构建以栅格为单位的风险评价方法。针对不同灾害类型,选取不同评价因子进行地质灾害易发性评价;基于评价结果,以近10年汛期月(5—10月)累计平均降水量为诱发因素,开展危险性评价;选取建筑物、人口和交通设施分布等因子构建承灾体的易损性评价模型;根据危险性和易损性评价结果,利用矩阵分析方法完成区内风险评价。结合区内地质灾害易发程度、承灾体情况、险情等级及地质灾害防治能力,实现研究区地质灾害风险性区划。结果显示,区内地质灾害高风险区主要分布于恐龙山镇-妥安乡龙川江沿岸,面积为290.47 km^(2),占比8.16%;中风险区主要分布于高峰乡、彩云镇,面积为2044.21 km^(2),占比57.48%;低风险区主要分布于妥安乡至高峰乡、金山镇、中村乡等地势平缓地带,面积为1222.05 km^(2),占比34.36%。评价结果可为禄丰市地质灾害防治减灾提供依据,并为其他地区开展评价提供思路和参考。Lufeng City is located in the central part of Yunnan province,with a complex geological environment.Geological disasters occur frequently in this area,posing a serious threat to the safety of local residentslives and property.This article takes Lufeng city as the research area,integrates the latest 1∶50000 geological hazard risk survey data,based on the GIS platform,adopts an information quantity model to construct a risk assessment system based on grids.Different evaluation factors were selected for susceptibility assessment for different types of disasters.On the basis of susceptibility assessment,the cumulative precipitation of the 10-year average flood season months(May October)is selected as the triggering factor for hazard analysis and evaluation.A vulnerability evaluation model for disaster prone bodies was constructed by selecting factors such as the distribution of buildings,population,transportation facilities,and other living facilities.Based on the comprehensive evaluation results of hazard and vulnerability,the risk assessment was completed using matrix analysis method.According to the geological susceptibility degree,disaster bearing body condition,risk grade and geological disaster prevention ability of the study area,the risk zoning of geological disasters in the city is realized.The results show that the area with high risk of geological disasters is mainly distributed along the Longchuan river in Konglongshan town and Tuoan township,with an area of 290.47 km^(2),accounting for 8.16%.The medium risk areas were mainly distributed in Gaofeng and Caiyun town,with an area of 2044.21 km^(2),accounting for 57.48%.The low-risk areas are mainly distributed in the gentle terrain areas from Tuo’an township to Gaofeng,Jinshan and Zhongcun township,with an area of 1222.05 km^(2),accounting for 34.36%.The evaluation results can provide a basis for geological disaster risk in Lufeng city,and provide ideas and references for other areas to carry out evaluation.

关 键 词：信息量模型 地质灾害 风险评价 禄丰 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]