老龄化、养老金覆盖率与水平对养老金支付负担的影响研究  

The Impacts of Aging,Pension Coverage and Level on Pension Payment Burden

作　　者：陈友华[1] 孙永健 CHEN Youhua;SUN Yongjian(School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023;School of Journalism and Communication,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学社会学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京大学新闻传播学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《河北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2025年第1期1-17,共17页Journal of Hebei University(Philosophy and Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口高质量发展视角下积极应对老龄化问题研究”(23&ZD186)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化是影响基础养老保险制度可持续性的关键因素。基于年龄移算法和生命表技术,以第六次与第七次全国人口普查数据为基础,测算2010-2030年中国领取养老金的老年人口规模、年限与资金规模。研究发现:由于老龄化程度加深与养老保险覆盖面扩大,中国领取养老金的老年人口规模持续扩大,从2010年的1.23亿人增加到2030年的3.32亿人。与此同时,中国养老金领取水平逐渐提高,养老金支付负担与日俱增,支出总额至少从2010年的13293.90亿元上涨至2030年的118933.19亿元。此外,由于老年人口余寿的显著延长,老年人领取养老金的年限也不断延长,从2010年的10.13年延长到2030年的19.92年,领取年限延长速度超过余寿延长速度。另外,养老金的支付负担还存在明显的性别与城乡差异。故而,提出落实延迟退休政策、慎重上调养老金替代率与养老金水平等参量变革措施、发展多支柱养老金模式、鼓励生育等结构改革举措,在人口与经济高质量发展中促进共同富裕。Population aging is the key to the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system.Based on age shift algorithm and life table technology,this paper makes use of the data of China's sixth and seventh national population censuses to calculate the size,years and fund size of China's elderly population receiving pensions from 2010 to 2030.The study concludes that due to the increase in the number and proportion of the elderly population and the expansion of pension insurance coverage,the scale of China's elderly receiving pensions continue to expand,from 123 million in 2010 to 332 million in 2030.Meanwhile,as China's pension level is still increasing,the result is that the payment burden of pension is increasing sharply,and the total expenditure will rise from 1329.390 billion yuan in 2010 to 11893.319 billion yuan in 2030.In addition,due to the extension of the life expectancy,the length of pension for the elderly continues to increase,from 10.13 years in 2010 to 19.92 years in 2030,and the growth rate of receiving years has exceeded that of remaining life.Additionally,there are significant gender and urban-rural disparities in the burden of pension payments.Finally,this paper proposes the implementation of measures such as enforcing the delayed retirement policy,cautiously increasing the replacement rate and level of pension,developing a multi-pillar pension system,and encouraging childbirth as measures of structural reforms.These initiatives aim to promote common prosperity in the context of high-quality development of population and economy.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老金负担 延迟退休 共同富裕 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]