欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征对中国乳制品进口效率的影响研究——基于复杂贸易网络模型  

The Impact of the Structural Features of the EU Dairy Trade Network on the Efficiency of China's Dairy Imports--Based on Complex Trade Network Model

作　　者：闫佳雯 刘佳佳 霍广军 张庆萍[1] YAN Jiawen;LIU Jiajia;HUO Guangjun;ZHANG Qingping(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830052)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《中国乳业》2024年第12期15-24,共10页China Dairy

摘　　要：在中国乳制品对外依赖度高、世界乳制品贸易不确定性增大背景下,基于保障中国乳业安全视角,本文用复杂网络模型研究欧盟乳制品贸易网络整体特征,并从节点强度、中介中心性、接近中心性三个维度刻画个体特征。进一步引入时变随机前沿引力模型,检验欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征、中国乳制品进口效率内在联系。结果显示:欧盟乳制品贸易越发紧密,成员国存在很强异质性。中介中心性、接近中心性、出强度促进乳制品贸易效率,但入强度增大贸易阻力。中国从欧盟进口乳制品整体贸易效率偏低,待挖掘潜力、拓展空间很大。中国应把握欧盟乳制品贸易网络特征发展趋势,差异化管理贸易伙伴国,积极展开贸易合作,提高乳制品进口效率,保障中国乳业安全。Under the background of China's high dependence on foreign dairy products and the increasing uncertainty of world dairy trade,based on the perspective of ensuring the safety of China's dairy industry,this paper used a complex network model to study the overall characteristics of the EU dairy trade network,and described the individual characteristics from three dimensions:node strength,intermediary centrality and proximity centrality.The time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model is further introduced to test the structural characteristics of the EU dairy trade network and the internal relationship between China's dairy import efficiency.The results showed that the EU's dairy trade is becoming more and more intense,and there is strong heterogeneity among member states.Intermediary centrality,proximity to centrality,and output intensity promote the efficiency of dairy trade,but the intensity of entry increases trade resistance.The overall trade efficiency of China's dairy products imported from the EU is low,and there is a lot of potential to be tapped and there is a lot of room for expansion.China should grasp the development trend of the characteristics of the EU's dairy trade network,manage its trading partners differently,actively carry out trade cooperation,improve the efficiency of dairy imports,and ensure the safety of China's dairy industry.

关 键 词：复杂网络模型 随机前沿引力模型 贸易效率 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61F755