西藏林芝多雄河流域高位雪崩易发性评价  

Research on high-altitude avalanche susceptibility area zoning based on informativeness modeling in the Duoxiong River Basin,Nyingchi area of Xizang Autonomous Region

作　　者：张平平 李滨[1,2] 高浩源 万佳威 ZHANG Pingping;LI Bin;GAO Haoyuan;WAN Jiawei(Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Geological Safety,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081 [2]自然资源部活动构造与地质安全重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2024年第6期44-57,共14页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2244226);中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20230538)。

摘　　要：随着全球气候变暖,冰雪融化速率加剧,雪崩灾害事件频发,严重威胁高寒山区的人民生命财产和交通廊道安全。以雅鲁藏布江下游多雄河流域为研究对象,基于遥感解译和野外调查,识别并验证了70个雪崩点,运用皮尔逊相关系数进行共线性分析,综合选取了高程、坡度、坡向、坡面曲率、地表切割深度、地表覆盖类型、植被覆盖度、地形湿度指数、年平均最低气温、归一化差雪指数等10个评价因子构建雪崩易发性评价体系,通过ArcGIS平台使用信息量模型进行雪崩易发性分区,将研究区分为低易发、中易发、高易发区三类,并采用ROC曲线进行了精度检验。结果表明:雪崩易发性评价模型AUC值为0.835,具有较好的预测精度;低易发、中易发、高易发区面积分别为60.61 km^(2)、74.33 km^(2)、96.91 km^(2),分别占研究区总面积的26.14%、32.06%、41.80%,其中高易发区主要分布在中高及高海拔地区,以多雄拉山、拉格最为典型。最后依据主-被动防御措施相结合提出空-天-地一体化监测预警技术和相应建筑结构。该研究可为多雄河流域防灾减灾提供技术支撑和科学参考。With global climate warming,the rate of snow and ice melting has accelerated,leading to frequent avalanche disasters,which seriously threaten people's lives and properties and the safety of transportation corridors in alpine mountainous areas.Taking the Daxiong River Basin downstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River as the research object,70 avalanche points were identified and verified based on remote sensing interpretation and field investigation.Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was used for conducting covariance analysis,and 10 evaluation factors including elevation,slope,slope direction,ground curvature,surface cutting depth,surface cover type,vegetation coverage,TWI,average annual minimum temperature,and NDSI were comprehensively selected to construct an avalanche susceptibility evaluation system.The information value model was used for avalanche susceptibility zoning on the ArcGIS platform,dividing the study area into three categories:low susceptibility,medium susceptibility,and high susceptibility zones,and accuracy verification was conducted using ROC curve.The results show that the AUC value of the avalanche susceptibility evaluation model is 0.835,indicating good predictive accuracy.The areas of low,medium,and high susceptibility zones are 60.61 km^(2),74.33 km^(2),and 96.91 km^(2),respectively,accounting for 26.14%,32.06%,and 41.80%of the total area of the study area.High susceptible zones are mainly located in mid-to-high and high-altitude areas,with Mount Duoxiongla,and Lage being typical.Finally,based on the combination of active and passive defense measures,integrated monitoring and early warning techniques,and corresponding architectural structures are proposed,providing technical support and scientific reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the Duoxiong River Basin.

关 键 词：多雄河流域 雪崩 遥感解译 信息量模型 易发性 防御措施 

分 类 号：P642.21[天文地球—工程地质学]