基于MaxEnt模型的四川省柏木潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats of Cupressus funebris in Sichuan Province Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：刘朔 兰立达 尹忠 潘业田 吴茜 LIU Shuo;LAN Lida;YIN Zhong;PAN Yetian;WU Qian(Sichuan Forestry and Grassland Survey and Planning Institute,Chengdu 610081,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省林业和草原调查规划院,四川成都610081

出　　处：《甘肃林业科技》2024年第4期32-38,共7页Journal of Gansu Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：四川典型人工林森林生态系统质量评估指标体系(LGKT202303)。

摘　　要：为揭示柏木在四川省潜在分布特征,该研究以2012年森林资源一类清查数据中优势树种柏木的样地坐标为样本点,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),结合气候、土壤及地形等环境因子,对四川省内柏木潜在适生区进行了预测和分析。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型AUC平均值为0.916,对四川省柏木地理分布预测结果非常好;(2)影响四川省柏木潜在适生区范围的主要生态因子为海拔、等温性、土壤pH值(0—30 cm),3个因子累计贡献率达87.1%;(3)四川省柏木潜在适生区分布范围主要为四川东部,总的潜在适生区面积117180 km^(2),占四川省国土总面积24.24%,其中,高适生区主要集中分布在四川盆地丘陵区,占总的潜在适生区面积14.12%;中适生区主要集中分布在盆周低山丘陵区以及盆东平行岭谷区,占42.22%;低适生区主要分布在盆周低中山区,占43.67%。该研究结果可为四川省柏木区划规划和可持续经营提供科学依据和决策支持。To reveal the potential distribution characteristics of Cupressus funebris in Sichuan province,this study used the coordinates of sample plots where C.funebris was the dominant tree species in the forest according to the first class inventory data of forest resources in 2012.Basically,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was applied,combined with environmental factors such as climate,soil,and topography,to predict and analyze the potential suitable habitats for C.funebris in Sichuan province.The results showed that:(1)The average AUC value of the MaxEnt model was 0.916,indicating excellent prediction results for the geographical distribution of C.funebris in Sichuan province.(2)The main ecological factors influencing the range of suitable habitats for C.funebris in Sichuan province were elevation,isothermality,and soil pH(0-30 cm),with a cumulative contribution rate of 87.1%.(3)The potential suitable habitats for C.funebris in Sichuan province were mainly located in the eastern part,with a total area of 117180 km^(2),accounting for 24.24%of the total land area of Sichuan province.Among them,the high suitability habitat was mainly concentrated in the hilly areas of the Sichuan Basin,accounting for 14.12%of the total potential suitable habitats;the medium suitability habitat was mainly concentrated in the low mountainous areas around the basin and the parallel ridge-valley areas in the east of the basin,accounting for 42.22%;the low suitability habitat was mainly distributed in the low and middle mountainous areas around the basin,accounting for 43.67%.The results of this study can provide scientific basis and decision support for the zoning planning and sustainable management of C.funebris in Sichuan province.

关 键 词：柏木 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 四川省 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]