洞庭湖汛期水位变化特征及其驱动因素分析  

Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Level Variation in Dongting Lake During Flood Season

作　　者：隆院男[1,2] 唐颖 杨家亮 莫军成 宋昕熠 LONG Yuan-nan;TANG Ying;YANG Jia-liang;MO Jun-cheng;SONG Xin-yi(School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province,Changsha 410114,China;Hunan Water Resources&Hydropower Survey,Design,Planning andResearch Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,长沙410114 [2]洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室,长沙410114 [3]湖南省水利水电勘测设计规划研究总院有限公司,长沙410007

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2024年第12期15-22,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079010);湖南省重点研发计划项目(2020SK2130);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20230890)。

摘　　要：洞庭湖位于长江中游,其水文特征变化对于长江中游具有重要影响。针对变化环境下洞庭湖汛期水位演变特征及驱动因素,通过分析东洞庭湖(城陵矶站)、西洞庭湖(南咀站)、南洞庭湖(杨柳潭站)汛期最低水位、汛期最高水位、汛期平均水位3类水位序列,采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt法检验3类水位序列的变异情况,基于GAMLASS模型分析3类水位序列的频率变化特征,并运用累积量斜率变化率法量化气候变化和人类活动的贡献率,以全面分析洞庭湖汛期水位变化的驱动因素。结果表明:同等设计频率下,3类水位序列的设计值均有不同程度的降低。此外,葛洲坝蓄水、下荆江裁弯和降水量增大是A2时期(1978—2002年)洞庭湖水位上升的主要原因;A3时期(2003—2022年),东洞庭湖同时受三峡水库蓄水、长江干流和三口四水来流的影响,出现水位下降趋势。西洞庭湖和南洞庭湖则主要受降水量减少的影响,来水量变小,从而引起水位下降。研究成果可为变化环境下洞庭湖区的防洪安全以及水资源利用提供参考。Dongting Lake is located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,and its hydrological characteristics have an important impact on the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.According to the evolution characteristics and driving factors of Dongting Lake water level in flood season under changing environment,this paper analyzes the lowest water level,highest water level and average water level of Dongting Lake in flood season in East Dongting Lake(Chenglingji Station),West Dongting Lake(Nanzui Station)and South Dongting Lake(Yangliutan Station).The Mann-Kendall method and Pettitt method were used to test the variation of the three types of water level series,the frequency change characteristics of the three types of water level series was analyzed based on the GAMLASS model,and the contribution rate of climate change and human activities was quantified by the cumulative slope change rate method,so as to comprehensively analyze the driving factors of water level change in Dongting Lake during flood season.The results show that under the same design frequency,the design values of the three kinds of water level series have different degrees of reduction.In addition,the water storage of Gezhouba,the bending of Lower Jingjiang River and the increase of precipitation were the main reasons for the rise of Dongting Lake water level during the A2 period(1978-2002).During A3 period(2003-2022),the water level of East Dongting Lake decreased due to the influence of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the main stream of the Yangtze River and the inflow of three mouths and four rivers.The West Dongting Lake and the South Dongting Lake are mainly affected by the decrease of precipitation,which leads to the decrease of incoming water volume and the decrease of water level.This study can provide reference for flood control safety and water resources utilization in Dongting Lake area under changing environment.

关 键 词：汛期最低水位 汛期最高水位 汛期平均水位 变异 气候变化 人类活动 洞庭湖 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]