2014—2023年湖南省0~14岁儿童肺结核流行特征及变化趋势  

The epidemiological characteristics and trends of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023

作　　者：梁麟龙 裴异 周海依 谢齐放 张锋 江杰 刘富强[5] Liang Linlong;Pei Yi;Zhou Haiyi;Xie Qifang;Zhang Feng;Jiang Jie;Liu Fuqiang(Department of Pediatrics,the Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital,Hengyang Medical School,University of South China,Changsha 410004,China;Children’s Tuberculosis Technology Innovation Center in Changsha,Changsha 410004,China;Hunan Clinical Medical Technology Demonstration Base of Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment,Changsha 410004,China;The Sixth Department of Pulmonary,the Affiliated Changsha Central Hospital,Hengyang Medical School,University of South China,Changsha 410004,China;Science and Education Section,Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changsha 410153,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学附属长沙市中心医院儿科,长沙410004 [2]长沙市儿童结核病技术创新中心,长沙410004 [3]湖南省结核病诊疗临床医疗技术示范基地,长沙410004 [4]南华大学附属长沙市中心医院肺六科,长沙410004 [5]湖南省疾病预防控制中心科教科,长沙410153

出　　处：《中国防痨杂志》2025年第1期29-35,共7页Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金(2023JJ60405);长沙市指导性科技计划项目(kzd22073);长沙市中心医院科技计划重点项目(YNKY202303)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2014—2023年湖南省0~14岁儿童肺结核发病的流行病学特征及变化趋势,为湖南省制定和调整0~14岁儿童肺结核疫情防控政策提供参考依据。方法:从“传染病监测系统”中收集2014—2023年湖南省0~14岁儿童肺结核的监测数据资料,分析研究期间0~14岁儿童肺结核的流行病学特征,并采用Joinpoint回归模型对发病趋势进行分析。结果:2014—2023年湖南省0~14岁儿童肺结核累计报告3350例,年均报告发病率为2.64/10万,报告发病率从2014年的1.80/10万(220例)上升到2023年的3.19/10万(384例),发病情况总体呈上升趋势(χ_(趋势)^(2)=82.928,P<0.001);男童、女童年均报告发病率分别为2.46/10万(1691例)和2.85/10万(1659例),女童的报告发病率高于男童,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=17.870,P<0.001)。Joinpoint回归分析显示,2014—2023年湖南省0~14岁儿童肺结核报告发病率总体呈上升趋势,年均上升5.759%(AAPC=5.759%,95%CI:0.245%~11.577%;t=2.411,P=0.042);女童变化趋势与全部儿童相似,年均上升7.511%(AAPC=7.511%,95%CI:0.471%~15.044%;t=2.466,P=0.039);男童变化趋势差异无统计学意义(AAPC=4.066%,95%CI:―0.548%~8.893%;t=2.027,P=0.077)。病原学阳性患者累计报告1030例,占全部儿童肺结核报告患者的30.75%(1030/3350);病原学检查阳性患者的构成比从2014年的21.82%(48/220)上升到2023年的41.41%(159/384),呈现逐年上升的趋势(χ_(趋势)^(2)=139.436,P<0.001)。病例报告最多的月份为10月(12.21%,409/3350),全年报告病例主要集中在7~10月份(44.99%,1507/3350)。结论:2014—2023年湖南省0~14岁儿童肺结核报告发病率总体呈上升趋势,病原学阳性患者例数也在逐年上升。应继续加大主动监测力度,结合各地区儿童肺结核实际发病情况调整防控策略。Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023,and to provide references for the formulation and adjustment of pediatric tuberculosis prevention and control policies.Methods:The surveillance data of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023 were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System.The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years were analyzed during the study period,and the incidence trend was analyzed using Joinpoint regression model.Results:From 2014 to 2023,a total of 3350 cases of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 were reported cumulatively in Hunan Province,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 2.64/100000,and the reported incidence rate increased from 1.80/100000(220 cases)in 2014 to 3.19/100000(384 cases)in 2023,with an overall upward trend(χ_(trend)^(2)=82.928,P<0.001).The average annual incidence was 2.46/100000(1691 cases)in boys and 2.85/100000(1659 cases)in girls,and the reported incidence for girls was higher than those for boys,with a statistically significant difference(χ^(2)=17.870,P<0.001).The reported incidence of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023 showed an overall upward trend in Joinpoint regression analysis,with an average annual increase of 5.759%(AAPC=5.759%,95%CI:0.245%-11.577%,t=2.411,P=0.042).The variation tendency of girls was similar to that of all children,with an average annual increase of 7.511%(AAPC=7.511%,95%CI:0.471%-15.044%,t=2.466,P=0.039),and there was no statistically significant difference in the trend for boys(AAPC=4.066%,95%CI:―0.548%-8.893%,t=2.027,P=0.077).A total of 1030 cases with positive etiological test were reported,accounting for 30.75%(1030/3350)of all reported pediatric tuberculosis cases.The proportion of etiology positive tests increased from 21.82%in 2014(48/220)to 41.41%in 2023(159/384),showing a yearly i

关 键 词：结核 儿童 流行病学研究 模型 统计学 

分 类 号：R529.9[医药卫生—内科学]