异龙湖流域土地利用时空变化分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of spatial-temporal change of land use in the Yilong Lake Basin

作　　者：何佳峰 赵行锋 王春富 刘淑霞 郑宏刚 HE Jia-feng;ZHAO Xing-feng;WANG Chun-fu;LIU Shu-xia;ZHENG Hong-gang(College of Resources and Environment,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China;College of Water Conservancy,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China;Yunnan Geological Engineering Second Survey Institute Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650218,China)

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学资源与环境学院,昆明650201 [2]云南农业大学水利学院,昆明650201 [3]云南地质工程第二勘察院有限公司,昆明650218

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2024年第12期17-23,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD06B04)。

摘　　要：对异龙湖流域1990—2020年土地利用的遥感影像进行分期提取,得到其时空演变趋势,利用土地利用转移矩阵与土地利用动态度探究近31年来异龙湖不同土地利用类型的转入与转出量,并利用PLUS模型对异龙湖2030年与2050年的土地利用格局进行预测。结果表明,1990—2020年,异龙湖流域的耕地、水域面积减少,建设用地面积大幅增加,林地面积出现了小范围的减少,草地面积变化不大;土地利用转移矩阵结果表明,大量耕地转变为建设用地,大量水域转为耕地,说明石屏县在近31年城市化扩张过程中占用了大量的耕地,而为了维持耕地占补平衡采取了围湖造田措施;PLUS模型预测结果表明,2050年,异龙湖流域的建设用地规模会进一步扩大,而耕地面积会减少。The remote sensing images of land use in the Yilong Lake Basin from 1990 to 2000 were extracted to obtain the spatial-tem⁃poral evolution trend of land use.At the same time,the research methods of land use transfer matrix and land use dynamics were used to explore the transfer in and out of different land use types in Yilong Lake in the past 31 years.Then,the PLUS model was used to pre⁃dict the spatial pattern of land use in the Yilong Lake in 2030 and 2050.The results showed that,from 1990 to 2020,the area of culti⁃vated land and water in the Yilong Lake Basin had been reduced,the area of construction land had increased significantly,the area of forest land had a small decrease,and the area of grassland had not changed much.The results of the land use transfer matrix showed that a large amount of cultivated land had been converted into construction land,and a large number of the water areas had been con⁃verted into cultivated land,indicating that Shiping County had occupied a large amount of cultivated land in the past 31 years of urban⁃ization expansion,and in order to achieve the requisition-compensation balance,the lake reclamation was implemented.The predic⁃tion results of the PLUS model showed that in 2050,the scale of construction land in the Yilong Lake Basin would increase,and the ar⁃ea of cultivated land would decrease.

关 键 词：土地利用 动态度 时空变化 预测 PLUS模型 异龙湖流域 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]