华北灌溉农业旱灾风险综合防范凝聚力评价指标体系构建  

Construction of Consilience Evaluation Index System for Irrigation Agricultural Drought Risk Comprehensive Prevention in North China

作　　者：商彦蕊[1,2] 宋世凯 胡清华[1] SHANG Yanrui;SONG Shikai;HU Qinghua(School of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China;Hebei Environmental Development and Ecological Construction Key Laboratory,Shijiazhuang 050024,China;Postdoctoral Research Station of Geography,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China)

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学地理科学学院,石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境演变与生态建设重点实验室,石家庄050024 [3]河北师范大学地理学博士后科研流动站,石家庄050024

出　　处：《河北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2025年第1期15-24,共10页Journal of Hebei Normal University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41671501);河北省自然科学基金(D2021205013);河北师范大学科技类研究基金(L2018B23)。

摘　　要：旱灾是对中国造成损失最大、影响最为严重的自然灾害之一.目前已对农业旱灾综合风险防范凝聚力进行初步研究,但尚未构建凝聚力评价指标体系.依据区域灾害系统理论和凝聚力的定义与阐述,在梳理人文社科凝聚力和农业旱灾脆弱性、适应性、恢复性研究成果的基础上,结合邢台市区域特点及对各级政府和农户等主体的调研结果,提出了指标选取原则与依据,运用层次分析法构建了县级和村镇级农业旱灾风险综合防范凝聚力评价指标体系.依据指标性质将体系分为2个部分:软指标“凝心”包括组织领导、协同合作、意愿度等方面;硬指标“聚力”包括孕灾环境、资源和工程设施、财力和粮食供给、农业生产等方面.研究可为后续量化分析提供基础,是对区域凝聚力整体水平的初步探究,也可为减轻旱灾风险提供理论指导与支持.Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in China.Comprehensive risk prevention consilience of agricultural drought has been preliminarily studied.However,no evaluation index system of consilience has been established.Based on the theory of regional disaster system and definition and explanation of consilience,this study sorts out the researches of consilience in humanities and social sciences,vulnerability,adaptability and resilience of agricultural drought.In combination with the regional characteristics of Xingtai city,this study summarizes the investigation of governments and farmers and other subjects,proposed the principle and basis of index selection,and constructs the consilience evaluation index system of integrated risk governance of agricultural drought at county and village level with the analytic hierarchy process.The system is divided into two parts,the soft index "coagulative core" covers organizational leadership,cooperation,willingness and other aspects,and the hard index "cohesion" includes disaster-prone environment,matching degree of water and soil resources,support capacity of resources and engineering facilities,financial resources and food supply satisfaction,agricultural production efficiency and so on.This study can provide the basis for subsequent quantitative analysis,and also is a preliminary study on the overall level of regional cohesion.It can provide theoretical guidance and support for reducing the risk of drought,and further promotes the research on cohesion for preventing the comprehensive risk of natural disasters.

关 键 词：灌溉农业旱灾 综合风险防范 凝聚力 评价指标体系 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]