Niño海区海表温度与1949—2022年登陆中国热带气旋的相关性分析研究  

Correlation analysis of the Niño sea surface temperature and tropical cyclones landing in China during 1949—2022

作　　者：陈世发[1] 全春焕 杨林 毛兰花 刘文 CHEN Shifa;QUAN Chunhuan;YANG Lin;MAO Lanhua;LIU Wen(School of Tourism and Geography,Shaoguan University,Shaoguan 512005,China)

机构地区：[1]韶关学院旅游与地理学院,广东韶关512005

出　　处：《海洋预报》2024年第6期62-70,共9页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42101008);广东省教育科学规划课题(2024GXJK301);广东省大学生创新创业训练项目(S202310576043);韶关市哲学社科项目(Z2021014,J2022016);广东省质量工程项目(自然地理教研室);韶关学院校质量工程项目(自然地理教研室);2021年度广东省课程思政建设改革示范项目/课程思政示范课程《气象学与气候学》(202122082)。

摘　　要：为研究Niño海区海表温度与登陆中国的热带气旋(TC)的相关性,利用1949—2022年登陆我国的TC数据,在探讨登陆TC时空分布的基础上,分析海温对登陆TC的影响。结果表明:登陆我国的TC年际波动大,总体呈下降趋势;受海温影响,台风级及以上级别的TC登陆频数在9月最大,其余级别均在8月最大;TC的源地位置、纬度与海岸线走向是影响登陆我国TC空间分布差异的重要因素;Niño各海区海温及海温距平值与登陆我国的TC均呈现极显著的相关关系,但存在2个月的滞后期。The correlation between the Nino SST(Sea Surface Temperature)and the tropical cyclones landed in China during 1949—2022 is studied through analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of the landing locations.The results show that tropical cyclones landed in China have large interannual variations with a general decreasing trend.Affected by SST,tropical cyclones at typhoon class and above have the largest landing frequency in September,while those below typhoon class have the largest landing frequency in August.Original location,landing latitude and coastline shape are important factors affecting the spatial differentiation of tropical cyclones landing locations.The Niño SST and their anomalies have significant correlation with the tropical cyclones landed in China,but with obvious time lag of two months.

关 键 词：热带气旋 时空变化 海温 登陆 Niño 

分 类 号：P731.11[天文地球—海洋科学]