渭河干流洪水演变趋势与变异特征研究  

Research on the evolution trend and variation characteristics of flooding in the main stream of the Wei River

作　　者：王灵子 姜仁贵[1] 赵勇[2] 解建仓[1] 汪雅梅 吕喜玺[4] WANG Lingzi;JIANG Rengui;ZHAO Yong;XIE Jiancang;WANG Yamei;LÜXixi(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Rivers and Reservoirs Administration Bureau of Shaanxi Province,Xi'an 710018,China;Department of Geography,National University of Singapore,Singapore 117568,Singapore)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]陕西省江河水库工作中心,陕西西安710018 [4]新加坡国立大学地理系,新加坡117568

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2024年第6期33-42,共10页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51509201);陕西省重点研发计划资助项目(2024SF-YBXM-655);陕西省水利科技项目(2024slkj-08)。

摘　　要：通过揭示渭河干流洪水演变趋势与变异特征,为流域防洪减灾和水资源管理提供参考。考虑日径流特征对洪水序列分析的影响,基于渭河干流6个典型水文站点1990—2020年逐日流量资料,采用块极值模型(Block Maxima Model,BMM)、超阈值峰量模型、Mann-Kendall检验和Pettitt突变检验分析洪水演变趋势与变异特征。结果表明:渭河干流洪水发生的时间和空间尺度上存在差异,时间尺度上,在1990—1993年、2003—2005年、2011—2013年及2018—2020年洪水出现频率较高;空间尺度上,渭河中下游地区发生洪水灾害频率较高。年最大洪峰流量总体上呈现增加趋势,超定量洪水发生次数呈减少趋势,洪水指标序列的变异点存在集聚性。研究结果可为流域防洪安全和水资源开发利用提供依据,助力流域高质量发展。This study aims to reveal the evolution trend and variation characteristics of flooding in the main stream of the Wei River,providing references for flood control,disaster reduction,and water resources management in the basin.Considering the influence of daily runoff characteristics on flood series analysis,based on the daily flow data from six typical hydrological stations along the main stream of the Wei River from 1990 to 2020,the Block Maxima Model(BMM),the Peak Over Threshold(POT)model,Mann-Kendall test,and Pettitt test were used to analyze the evolution trend and variation characteristics of flooding.The results show that there are differences in the temporal and spatial scales of flooding occurrences in the main stream of the Wei River.In terms of temporal scale,higher flood frequencies were observed during 1990-1993,2003-2005,2011-2013,and 2018-2020.In terms of spatial scale,the middle and lower reaches of the Wei River are prone to frequent flooding.The annual maximum peak flow generally shows an increasing trend,while the occurrence frequency of extreme quantile floods shows a decreasing trend.The variation points of flood index sequences exhibit clustering characteristics.The findings of this study can provide a basis for flood control and water resources development,contributing to the high-quality development of the basin.

关 键 词：渭河干流 洪水特征 POT模型 MANN-KENDALL检验 Pettitt突变检验 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]