1971—2021年大连地区冬季冷暖变化特征及大气环流异常成因分析  

Analysis of variation characteristics and atmospheric circulation causes of cold and warm winter in Dalian from 1971 to 2021

作　　者：王秀萍 金巍[2] 侯彦泽 范开宇 李潇潇 WANG Xiuping;JIN Wei;HOU Yanze;FAN Kaiyu;LI Xiaoxiao(Dalian Meteorological Observatory,Dalian 116001,China;Anshan Meteorological Service,Anshan 114000,China;Dalian Meteorological Service Center,Dalian 116001,China)

机构地区：[1]大连市气象台,辽宁大连116001 [2]鞍山市气象局,辽宁鞍山114000 [3]大连市气象服务中心,辽宁大连116001

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2024年第5期30-39,共10页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金课题面上基金项目(2021SYIAEKFMS04);辽宁省气象局科研项目(RC202202)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于1971—2021年大连地区南部(大连、旅顺、金州)、北部(瓦房店、普兰店、庄河)6个国家气象站冬季逐日气温观测资料和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验、百分位法定义极端事件阈值和合成分析等方法,分析了近51 a大连地区冬季冷暖变化趋势及异常特征,并进一步探讨了冷冬、暖冬年大气环流异常成因。结果表明:近51 a大连地区冬季和各月气温变化均呈不同程度上升趋势,南部地区的上升率高于北部地区;金州以南和瓦房店地区尤以最低气温上升最明显,最低气温的上升对冬季增暖最为显著,旅顺最低气温升幅最大,而普兰店和庄河地区尤以最高气温上升最明显,最高气温的上升对冬季增暖最为显著,普兰店最高气温升幅最大;大连地区2月的气温上升对冬季增暖贡献最大。20世纪70—80年代为偏冷期,90年代是最暖期,进入21世纪以来,从2006年开始冬季增暖趋缓。大连地区在1986年前后发生由冷变暖的显著突变。近51 a低温日数呈明显减少趋势,相对暖期仍有寒冷年份出现,1月低温日数最多。近51 a冬季极端冷日显著减少,极端暖日明显增加,且极端暖日年际起伏较大,增加了气候异常的不稳定性。大连地区冬季气温异常主要是由地面西伯利亚高压、500 hPa东亚大槽、乌拉尔山高压、鄂霍茨克海高压等的异常导致。冬季地面西伯利亚高压较常年同期显著偏强(弱),500 hPa欧亚中高纬度以经(纬)向环流为主,乌拉尔山高压、鄂霍茨克海高压和东亚大槽较常年同期明显偏强(弱),导致东亚冬季风偏强(弱),有(不)利于冷空气南下影响大连地区,从而造成大连地区易出现冷(暖)冬。This study analyzes the daily temperature observation data from 6 national meteorological stations in Dalian,including the southern area(Dalian,Lvshun,Jinzhou)and northern area(Wafangdian,Pulandian,Zhuanghe)in winter from 1971 to 2021,as well as NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data.Using methods such as linear tendency rate,Mann-Kendall abrupt test,extreme temperature thresholds defined by using percentiles and synthetic analysis,the cold and warm variation trends and unusual characteristics of winter over the past 51 years are analyzed.The atmospheric circulation causes of cold and warm winter in Dalian are further investigated.The results indicate that the winter temperature and monthly temperature have shown an increasing trend over the past 51 years,with a higher warming rate observed in the southern region compared to the north.The most significant rise in minimum temperatures occurs in south of Jinzhou and in Wafangdian,with notably impacting winter warming;Lvshun shows the highest increase in minimum temperatures,while Pulandian and Zhuanghe exhibit the most substantial rises in maximum temperatures;the increase in maximum temperatures has the most significant impact on winter warming,with Pulandian experiencing the highest rise in maximum temperatures.The temperature rise in February contributes the most to winter warming in Dalian.The period from the 1970s to 1980s was predominantly cold,while the 1990s were the warmest,but the warming slowed down in 2006.A significant transition from cold to warm around 1986 in winter mean temperature in Dalian.Over the past 51 years,there has been a significant decrease in the number of low-temperature days,although cold years still fluctuate within relatively warm periods,particularly in January when the highest number of low-temperature days occurs.Extreme cold days have significantly decreased,while extreme warm days have notably increased over the past 51 years,leading to greater interannual fluctuation and instability in climate anomalies.The winter temperature anoma

关 键 词：冬季冷暖 大气环流 百分位法 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]