基于GAM的中山市薇甘菊环境因子分析及适生区分布预测  

Analysis of Environmental Factors and Prediction of Suitable Distribution Areas of Mikania micrantha in Zhongshan City Based on GAM

作　　者：高嵩 马莹莹 马红丽 谢德志 GAO Song;MA Yingying;MA Hongli;XIE Dezhi(Guangzhou Yanmei Landscape Engineering Design Co.,Ltd,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510520,China;Guangzhou Carbon Sequestration Forestry Co.,Ltd,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510520,China)

机构地区：[1]广州研美园林工程设计有限公司,广东广州510520 [2]广州碳汇林业有限公司,广东广州510520

出　　处：《林业与环境科学》2024年第6期122-127,共6页Forestry and Environmental Science

基　　金：广东省林学会科技计划项目(2021-GDFS-KJ-04)。

摘　　要：为分析环境因子对薇甘菊Mikania micrantha分布的影响,2020—2021年间以中山市为研究区,于薇甘菊盛花期进行实地踏查,收集薇甘菊分布点数据,定量分析10个环境因子对薇甘菊分布的影响,基于GAM模型(Generalized additive model)对中山市薇甘菊适生区分布进行预测。结果显示,(1)模型结果拟合精度高,TSS(Total sum of squares)均值为0.87,AUC(Area under the curve)均值为0.93;(2)10个环境因子对薇甘菊分布均有贡献,贡献率最大的为降水量季节性变化(18.63%),其次为海拔(17.90%),第三为4月降水量(16.47%);(3)模型预测结果显示中山市约89.23%的地区适宜薇甘菊分布。研究构建的GAM模型拟合精度高,并证明了中山市区域尺度下水、热和海拔为影响薇甘菊分布的主导因子。To analyze the effects of environmental factors on the distribution of Mikania micrantha,a field survey was conducted during the peak flowering period of M.micrantha in Zhongshan city from 2020 to 2021.Data on distribution points of M.micrantha were collected,and the effects of 10 environmental factors on its distribution were quantitatively analyzed.Based on the Generalized Additive Model(GAM),the distribution of suitable areas for M.micrantha in Zhongshan city was predicted.The results showed that:(1)the model had high fitting accuracy,with a total sum of squares(TSS)mean of 0.87 and an area under the curve(AUC)mean of 0.93;(2)Ten environmental factors contribute to the distribution of chamomile,with the highest contribution rate being seasonal variation in precipitation(18.63%),followed by altitude(17.90%),and the third being precipitation in April(16.47%);(3)The model prediction results show that about 89.23%of the areas in Zhongshan city are suitable for the distribution of M.micrantha.The GAM model constructed in the study has high fitting accuracy and has been proven to be the dominant factor affecting the distribution of M.micrantha at the regional scale in Zhongshan city,including water,heat,and altitude.

关 键 词：GAM模型 薇甘菊 分布预测 

分 类 号：S765[农业科学—森林保护学]