基于MaxEnt模型的冬樱花潜在引种区研究  

Study on the Potential Introduction Areas of Cerasus cerasoides Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：贺鹭瑶 徐晓丹 郑伟 HE Luyao;XU Xiaodan;ZHENG Wei(Faculty of Architecture and City Planning,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan,China,650504)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学建筑与城市规划学院,昆明650504

出　　处：《园林》2025年第1期134-139,共6页Landscape Architecture Academic Journal

基　　金：云南省科技计划项目“冬樱花的遗传多样性及品种整理研究”(编号:202401AT070330)。

摘　　要：冬樱花(Cerasus cerasoides)是全球唯一在冬季盛开的樱花,主要分布于中国云南省,园林应用潜力巨大,但近年来冬樱花向省外的引种并不成功。因此,研究冬樱花在中国的潜在适生区对冬樱花园林引种和推广应用具有重要意义。收集冬樱花275个地理分布信息、32个环境变量因子以及当代(1970–2000年)、未来(2021–2070年)的气候数据,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS),预测当代和未来气候环境下冬樱花在中国的潜在引种区,并通过基于刀切法的ROC曲线对预测精度进行检验。影响冬樱花潜在引种区分布的主要环境因子包括:季节性温度变化、最干月降水量、等温性和海拔。预测模型的评估指标(AUC值)为0.983,表明预测精度极高,结果可靠。当前气候条件下,冬樱花引种区总面积为4.99×10^(5)km^(2),占中国陆地面积5.42%。其中,高、中、低引种区面积分别为2.04×10^(5)km^(2)(2.21%)、1.23×10^(5)km^(2)(1.24%)、1.81×10^(5)km^(2)(1.96%)。冬樱花潜在引种区主要分布在西南地区及华南地区。未来气候条件下,冬樱花的潜在引种区总面积呈增加趋势,适生区以高适生区为中心向四周扩散,尤其是东南方向。旨在为冬樱花的引种栽培、推广应用和区划研究提供参考。Cerasus cerasoides is the only cherry that flowers in winter worldwide.It is mainly distributed in Yunnan Province,China,and has vast market potential.However,introducing these C.cerasoides to the other provinces has not succeeded in recent years.Therefore,the study of the potential introduction areas for C.cerasoides in China is of great importance for introducing and promoting C.cerasoides in landscaping.275 geographical distribution information of C.cerasoides,32 environmental variable factors,and contemporary(1970–2000)and future(2021–2070)climate data were collected.Then,the potential introduction areas of C.cerasoides in China under the contemporary and future climatic environments were predicted using the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and geographical information system(ArcGIS).Finally,the ROC curve based on the knife-cut method tested the model's prediction accuracy.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential introduction areas for C.cerasoides were seasonal temperature variation,driest month precipitation,isothermality,and altitude.The predicted model assessment metric(AUC value)was 0.983,indicating high prediction accuracy and reliable results.Under the current climate conditions,the potential suitable area for C.cerasoides is 4.99×10^(5)km^(2),accounting for 5.42%of the total land area of China.The potential introduction areas are divided into high,medium,and low regions,with respective areas of 2.04×10^(5)km^(2)(2.21%),1.23×10^(5)km^(2)(1.24%),and 1.81×10^(5)km^(2)(1.96%).The potential introduction areas of C.cerasoides are mainly distributed in China's southwestern and southern regions.This study would provide a reference for introducing,cultivating,and promoting the regional zoning of C.cerasoides.

关 键 词：高盆樱桃 生态位模型 引种 适宜区 预测 

分 类 号：TU986[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]