基于多元线性模型的烟叶质量指标筛选和评价方法  

Index Screening and Evaluation Method of Tobacco Quality Based on Multivariate Linear Model

作　　者：田雨农 邱敏 刘丹阳 李庆祥 徐慧 黄杰 郝贤伟[1] TIAN Yu'nong;QIU Min;LIU Danyang;LI Qingxiang;XU Hui;HUANG Jie;HAO Xianwei(Technology Center of China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310024,China;Tobacco Research Institute of CAAS,Qingdao,Shandong 266101,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江中烟工业有限责任公司技术中心,浙江杭州310024 [2]山东中烟工业有限责任公司青岛卷烟厂,山东青岛266101

出　　处：《农产品加工》2024年第23期52-56,共5页Farm Products Processing

基　　金：中国烟草总公司科技项目“提高原料使用价值的二类卷烟关键设计技术研究与应用”(110202103003);浙江中烟工业有限责任公司科技项目“原烟质量数字化评价及模块重塑设计研究”(ZJZY2021A007)。

摘　　要：烟叶质量评价是烟叶生产、烟叶原料采购和卷烟中应用的重要参考,但目前评价所采用的统计学方法有一些不足之处,如存在概念不清、方法使用不当等问题。为建立科学合理的烟叶质量评价方法,以全国28个产烟市110份B2F烟叶为例,分析检测13项化学成分并评吸烟叶感官品质,通过多元线性模型建立的原理和思路,构建烟叶质量评价线性模型。研究结果表明,总糖、还原糖、糖碱比、淀粉、烟碱、总氮、烟叶钾、灰分和烟叶硼等9项化学成分与评吸得分存在显著线性关系;化学成分间相关性较强,存在多重共线性问题;利用逐步线性回归修正了多重共线性,筛选出总糖和烟叶硼作为关键评价指标;评价指标的权重可通过主导分析确定。以此构建的线性模型在一定范围内可应用于烟叶质量评价。Tobacco quality evaluation is an important reference for tobacco production,procurement of tobacco raw materials and cigarette application.However,there are some problems such as unclear concept and improper use of statistical methods used in the evaluation.In order to establish a scientific and reasonable evaluation method for tobacco quality,this paper took 110 B2F tobacco leaves from 28 tobacco-producing cities in China as an example,analyzed 13 chemical components and evaluated the sensory quality of smoking leaves,and constructed a linear model for tobacco quality evaluation based on the principle and idea of multiple linear models.The results showed that the total sugar,reducing sugar,sugar-base ratio,starch,nicotine,total nitrogen,leaf potassium,ash and leaf boron of the 13 chemical components had a significant linear relationship with the smoking score.The correlation between chemical components was strong,and there was the problem of multicollinearity.The stepwise linear regression method could effectively modify the multicollinearity and screen out the two evaluation indexes of total sugar and tobacco leaf boron.The weight of evaluation index could be determined by leading analysis.The linear model could be applied to comprehensive evaluation of tobacco quality in a certain range.

关 键 词：多元线性模型 指标筛选 质量评价 多重共线性 主导分析 

分 类 号：TS452.3[农业科学—烟草工业]