国内大循环与产业链韧性  

Domestic Circulation and Industrial Chain Resilience

作　　者：李朝鲜[1] 冉莉君 LI Chaoxian;RAN Lijun(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Statistics,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu,Sichuan 610103,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学数学与统计学院,北京100048 [2]成都信息工程大学统计学院,四川成都610103

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第6期1-13,共13页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“多重复杂背景下中国经济‘双循环’接驳及其协同性、有效性的统计研究”(21&ZD151)。

摘　　要：在新发展格局下提升产业链韧性,需要正确认识国内大循环在其中发挥的重要作用。基于亚洲开发银行编制的多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO),测算了2007—2021年中国行业层面的国内大循环程度和产业链韧性水平,并实证检验了国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响及作用机制。研究发现,国内大循环增强了产业链韧性,强化产业关联是国内大循环提升产业链韧性的重要渠道。异质性分析结果表明,国内大循环对产业链韧性的提升作用在第三产业、非制造业以及2008年国际金融危机后更大。因此,应加快推进国内大循环建设,并积极提升产业之间的关联性,为增强产业链韧性提供有效路径,加快构建双循环新发展格局。Enhancing industrial chain resilience under the new development pattern necessitates a correct understanding of the important role played by domestic circulation.Utilizing the Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables developed by the Asian Development Bank(ADB-MRIO),this study measures the level of domestic circulation and industrial chain resilience at the industry level in China from 2007 to 2021,and empirically examines the impact of domestic circulation on industrial chain resilience and its mechanisms.The findings indicate that domestic circulation significantly bolsters industrial chain resilience,with the strengthening of industrial linkages serving as a crucial channel.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of domestic circulation on industrial chain resilience is more pronounced in the tertiary sector and the manufacturing sector,and has become increasingly evident in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.Therefore,it is imperative to expedite the development of a robust domestic circulation system and actively foster inter-industry linkages to establish effective pathways for enhancing industrial chain resilience,thereby accelerating efforts to foster a new development pattern of dual circulation.

关 键 词：国内大循环 产业链韧性 产业关联 前向关联 后向关联 投入产出表 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F223F015