消费刺激还是债务积压:房贷利率政策的时长依赖性  

Consumption Stimulation or Debt Overhang:The Duration Dependence of Mortgage Rates Policy

作　　者：宁磊[1] 王敬博 李文杰 NING Lei;WANG Jing-bo;LI Wen-jie(School of Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;Shanghai Securities News Co.Ltd)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院 [2]上海证券报社有限公司

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第10期24-42,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“家庭资产负债表在宏观调控政策与经济冲击传导中的作用研究——基于多资产生命周期模型的分析”(批准号72373090);国家自然科学基金面上项目“高房价背景下养老保险政策对老年人劳动供给的影响研究”(批准号71874105)。

摘　　要：本文探讨了货币政策通过家庭资产负债表向消费的传导,指出货币政策不但具有状态依赖性,而且具有时长依赖性。基于中国家庭住房资产和家庭债务快速增长,且家庭不能进行二次抵押的特征事实,本文首先构建了一个包含房产以及房屋抵押贷款的异质性家庭动态离散选择生命周期模型,然后通过仿真模拟的方式,将货币政策区分为利率短期下降和利率长期下降两种情形,探讨了货币政策对家庭消费的影响。研究发现,利率下降对家庭消费的影响取决于该下降所持续的时间。当利率下降持续时间较短时,由贷款成本下降产生的收入效应较明显,消费需求短期内得到释放,但长期内消费需求会回到初始状态。当利率下降持续时间较长时,收入效应会逐渐被替代效应、债务积压效应以及预防性储蓄效应所取代,消费需求会先上升后下降,并最终低于初始状态,房价同样会先上升后下降,但最终高于初始稳态,而家庭债务则持续上升,家庭流动性持续下降,与2014年以来的中国宏观经济环境一致。本文认为,加快构建新发展格局、实施扩大内需战略,应保持货币政策稳健性,合理使用货币政策工具,避免公众形成宽松货币环境的预期。本文为理解中国特殊房贷制度安排下货币政策通过家庭部门传导的机制提供了新的理论视角,也为政府完善宏观经济治理方式提供了政策启示。Monetary policy is widely recognized as an important tool for stimulating household consumption.However,despite the implementation of various monetary and credit policies aimed at addressing the issue of“insufficient effective domestic demand”,the effectiveness of these policies remains uncertain.Therefore,it is crucial to gain a deeper understanding of the transmission channels of key macroeconomic policy instruments to enhance macroeconomic governance.This paper constructs a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model incorporating state variables such as liquid assets,housing assets,and mortgages to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Literature suggests that the transmission channels of monetary policy can be broadly categorized into indirect and direct effects,with the direct effects further divided into cash flow and refinancing channels.However,the structure of China’s mortgage market adds complexity to this analysis.The underdeveloped home equity loan market limits households’access to home equity,weakening the refinancing channel.Meanwhile,both deposit and mortgage interest rates have remained low since the People’s Bank of China cut rates five times in 2014,creating a persistently low interest rate environment.Given these circumstances,this paper constructs two counterfactual scenarios to examine the shortterm stimulative effects of monetary policy and analyzes the mitigating or amplifying effects of a prolonged low-interest rate environment.The findings indicate that in the short run,interest rate cuts can stimulate household consumption,with the wealth effect amplifying this due to rising housing prices.However,in the long run,prolonged lower interest rates can lead to at least three adverse effects on consumption:a negative income effect from low deposit rates,a substitution effect from consumption to housing services driven by low mortgage rates,and a debt overhang effect from accumulating mortgage debt.Consequently,household consumption falls below the initial steady-state leve

关 键 词：货币政策 房产 住房抵押贷款 结构模型 消费 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]