技术断供与市场多元化开拓——基于贸易网络视角  

Technology Blockade and Diversification of Markets:Based on the Trade Networks

作　　者：李宁静 李春顶 LI Ning-jing;LI Chun-ding(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第10期100-117,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“重大公共卫生事件对我国全球价值链分工地位的影响机制及对策研究”(批准号20ZD&119)。

摘　　要：开拓多元化市场对于中国实行高水平对外开放具有重要意义。本文通过构建理论框架,借助偏移份额分析方法,整合2016—2022年多维度数据库,评估了美国技术断供对中国信息通信技术(ICT)产品开拓多元化市场的双重影响,即负面的成本效应和积极的市场效应。本文发现,技术断供形成正向市场效应,促进了中国ICT产品出口市场的多元化,其核心机制主要是通过提升地区需求、研发激励和自主生产共同驱动。同时,国内贸易网络能够显著放大市场效应的积极作用。此外,市场效应对多元化市场开拓具有长期影响,且对ICT产品全球价值链攀升亦有积极效果。在集成电路、基础软件、量子计算等关键核心技术领域被“卡脖子”,以及产业链本土化、局部区域化趋势增强的情形下,本文研究有助于理解如何开拓中国ICT多元化市场以及降低产业不安全、不稳定风险,研究结论为发展中经济体形成独立自主路径提供了经验支持,也为促进高水平对外开放提供了实践参考。Preventing foreign trade risks has become a severe challenge for countries and diversifying markets plays a crucial role in responding to external shocks.The United States has implemented stringent export controls through a series of entity lists since 2018,resulting in a technology blockade for China’s Information and Communications Technology(ICT)products.This has led to a sharp increase in the import costs of ICT intermediate inputs.Meanwhile,the disruption of exports from upstream manufacturers has created opportunities for the development of ICT products in China.Therefore,it is crucial to explore whether China’s ICT products seize this opportunity to diversify its markets based on the trade networks.The technology blockade not only directly impacts the sanctioned firms but also continues to spread along differentiated trade network relationships.Specifically,as foreign manufacturers discontinue the supply of critical intermediates,domestic products have the chance to fill market gaps.Measuring this market effect is of great significance for addressing external risks in the future.Therefore,this paper focuses on distinguishing between the cost and market effects of the technology blockade.The cost effect refers to the direct negative impact of supply chain disruptions,while the market effect refers to the positive effects resulting from increased regional demand,R&D incentives,and incentives for independent production.This paper accomplishes three main objectives.Firstly,it provides a theoretical framework based on Antras et al.(2024),and delves into the dual impacts of technology blockade.Secondly,it employs the shift-share analysis to clarify the mechanisms of the cost effect and market effect,providing causal inference support.This paper finds that the expansion of market demand prompts firms to invest more resources in establishing sales channels.Meanwhile,a market where supply falls short of demand incentivizes firms to allocate more resources to research and independent production.Additionally,dome

关 键 词：技术断供 贸易网络 多元化市场 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]