基于傅里叶级数的地表空气中^(210)Pb活度浓度与气象参数的关系探讨  

Study on the relationship between ^(210)Pb activity concentration in surface air and meteorological parameters based on Fourier series

作　　者：李立凡 范雪波 李慧萍 胡翔 史鑫源 陈东兵 LI Lifan;FAN Xuebo;LI Huiping;HU Xiang;SHI Xinyuan;CHEN Dongbing(China Institute of Atomic Energy,Beijing 102413;Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center of Beijing,Beijing 100089;Beijing Meteorological Observation Center,Beijing 100176)

机构地区：[1]中国原子能科学研究院,北京102413 [2]北京市核与辐射安全中心,北京100089 [3]北京市气象探测中心,北京100176

出　　处：《辐射防护》2024年第6期623-630,共8页Radiation Protection

摘　　要：本研究基于地表空气中^(210)Pb活度浓度的基础数据,分析了^(210)Pb的活度浓度与日照、温度、相对湿度、气压、平均总云量、降雨量等气象参数的相关性,使用傅里叶级数完成了地表空气中^(210)Pb活度浓度的变化趋势预测。结果表明:地表空气中^(210)Pb的月平均活度浓度与温度、相对湿度、平均总云量和降雨量之间均存在很强的负相关性,与气压之间存在很强的正相关性,证实了使用傅里叶级数预测地表空气中^(210)Pb的活度浓度的可能性。在^(210)Pb的活度浓度谐波谱中,除波动周期为1年的最大谐波外,周期为5年的谐波也较为显著,但与温度、相对湿度、气压、平均总云量和降雨量等气象参数相比,周期性并不十分显著。傅里叶级数预测结果显示地表空气中^(210)Pb的活度浓度预测值与实测值的变化趋势大致吻合,但并不完全一致,在后续的研究中可考虑使用机器学习、神经网络等方法,以提升预测精度。Based on the basic data of ^(210)Pb activity concentration in surface air,this study analyzed the correlation between ^(210)Pb activity concentration in surface air and meteorological parameters such as sunshine,temperature,relative humidity,pressure,average total cloud cover and rainfal.This study used Fourier series to complete the change trend prediction of ^(210)Pb activity concentration in surface air.The results showed that the monthly mean activity concentration of ^(210)Pb in the surface air had a strong negative correlation with temperature,relative humidity,average total cloud cover and rainfall while showed a strong positive correlation with air pressure,confirming the possibility of using Fourier series to predict the activity concentration of ^(210)Pb in surface air.In the activity concentration harmonic spectrum of ^(210)Pb,except for the maximum harmonic wave with a period of 1 year,the harmonic wave with a period of 5 years is also significant,but the periodicity is not very significant compared with temperature,relative humidity,pressure,average total cloud cover and rainfall.The Fourier series prediction results show that the predicted value of ^(210)Pb activity concentration in the surface air is roughly consistent with the measured value,but not completely consistent.In the subsequent research,machine learning,neural network and other methods can be considered to improve the prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：傅里叶级数 空气 ^(210)Pb 活度浓度 气象参数 

分 类 号：TL81[核科学技术—核技术及应用] X830[环境科学与工程—环境工程]