面向变压器的模糊危害网络风险优先数分析法  

Fuzzy hazard network risk priority number analysis method for power transformers

作　　者：郭红兵 杨玥 付文光 郑璐 GUO Hongbing;YANG Yue;FU Wenguang;ZHENG Lu(Inner Mongolia Power Research Institute Branch,Inner Mongolia Power(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot 010020,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司内蒙古电力科学研究院分公司,呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2024年第12期279-288,共10页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

基　　金：内蒙古电力科学研究院2023年年度科技项目(510141240001)。

摘　　要：针对电力变压器的危害性分析较少考虑外部因素的关联性问题,提出了一种基于模糊理论和网络分析法的风险优先数综合评估方法。该方法以变压器失效模式为研究主体,将模糊集理论与风险分析优先数法相结合,解决了传统方法中对各失效模式与部件之间的隶属关系不明确和风险评估中未量化成本与评分之间关系的问题。通过模糊集理论,有效整合了确定的缺陷记录与不确定的模糊经验语言,实现了对变压器不同失效模型下失效概率的精确评估。此外独立考虑运行维护成本,扩充风险分析维度,实现对运维成本的关注。同时引入网络分析法细化了严酷度等级评定,综合考虑了各影响因素之间的关联关系。案例结果表明,该方法能够有效识别和评价失效风险,为优化维护策略、降低成本提供了一定的依据。A comprehensive risk priority number evaluation method based on fuzzy theory and network analysis is proposed to address the issue of the correlation between external factors in the hazard analysis of power transformers.This method focuses on transformer failure modes and combines fuzzy set theory with risk analysis priority number method to solve the problems of insufficient emphasis on the subjectivity of failure modes and insufficient consideration of cost impact in traditional methods.By using fuzzy set theory,the definite defect records and uncertain fuzzy empirical language are effectively integrated,achieving accurate evaluation of the failure probability of transformers under different failure models.In addition,independent consideration of operation and maintenance costs,expansion of risk analysis dimensions,and attention to operation and maintenance costs.At the same time,network analysis was introduced to refine the severity level assessment,taking into account the interrelationships between various influencing factors.The case results show that this method can effectively identify and evaluate failure risks,providing a certain basis for optimizing maintenance strategies and reducing costs.

关 键 词：电力变压器 失效模式 危害性分析 风险优先数 网络分析法 模糊集理论 

分 类 号：TM411.4[电气工程—电器]