人工智能对中国制造业出口技术复杂度的影响——基于工业机器人应用的检验  

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Technological Sophistication of China’s Manufacturing Industry Exports: An Empirical Test of Industrial Robot Applications

作　　者：杨晓霞 李恒 YANG Xiaoxia;LI Heng(School of Economics and Trade,Henan Finance University,Zhengzhou 451464,China;School of Economics,Jiaxing University,Jiaxing 314001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南财政金融学院经济与贸易学院,郑州451464 [2]嘉兴大学经济学院,浙江嘉兴314001

出　　处：《开发研究》2024年第6期67-78,共12页Research On Development

基　　金：浙江省软科学研究项目“新型基础设施推动制造业转型升级的机理、路径与策略研究”(2021C35125)。

摘　　要：使用2009—2022年工业机器人数据,实证检验人工智能与我国制造业出口技术复杂度之间的关系。研究发现,人工智能对我国制造业出口技术复杂度的提升具有促进作用,采用工具变量法克服内生性偏误以及一系列稳健性检验后,上述结论依然成立;人工智能对我国出口技术复杂度的促进作用存在异质性,在人工智能集聚区、数字基础设施较好、外商直接投资水平较低以及“一带一路”重点省份等区域,这一促进作用更为显著。门槛模型的检验表明,人工智能对我国制造业出口技术复杂度的影响存在门槛效应。随着人力资本质量跨越单一门槛值,人工智能对出口技术复杂度的影响效应由负转正;知识产权保护存在“最优区间”,在最优区间内,人工智能对出口技术复杂度的提升效应最大。对此,提出加快人工智能技术的研发与应用、优化人工智能区域布局以及强化人力资本质量培育与知识产权保护力度的建议。Using the data of industrial robots during 2009-2022,this paper empirically examines the relationship between artificial intelligence and the technological sophistication of China’s manufacturing industry exports.The research finds that artificial intelligence can significantly improve the technical sophistication of China’s manufacturing industry exports.The above conclusion remains valid after adopting the instrumental variable method to overcome endogenous biases and a series of robustness tests.The promotional effect of artificial intelligence on the technological sophistication of China’s exports is heterogeneous,being more significant in regions such as artificial intelligence agglomeration areas,with better digital infrastructure,areas with lower levels of foreign direct investment and key provinces along“Belt and Road”.Threshold model tests show that there is a threshold effect of artificial intelligence on the technological sophistication of China’s manufacturing exports.As the quality of human capital crosses a single threshold,the impact of artificial intelligence on the technological sophistication of exports shifts from negative to positive.Moreover,there is an“optimal range”for intellectual property protection,within which,artificial intelligence has the greatest effect on enhancing the technological sophistication of exports.In this regard,this paper proposes suggestions to accelerate the research and application of artificial intelligence,optimize the regional layout of artificial intelligence as well as strengthen the cultivation of human capital quality and the protection of intellectual property rights.

关 键 词：人工智能 出口技术复杂度 人力资本质量 知识产权保护 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F49[经济管理—产业经济] F424