美国加大对华战略竞争背景下的东盟国家对冲战略  

The Hedging Strategy of ASEAN in the Context of America’s Increasing Strategic Competition with China

作　　者：李莉文[1] 金玉璨 Li Liwen;Jin Yucan(School of English and International Studies,Beijing Foreign Studies University)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学英语学院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2024年第6期150-178,183,共30页Peace and Development

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“美国‘分包外交’中对非洲的援助研究”(项目编号:2024JJ017)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在美国特朗普、拜登两任政府大力实施“印太战略”的大背景下,美国在东南亚对华博弈主要聚焦构建“去中国化”供应链、提供“一带一路”竞争性替代方案、激化地区紧张局势。东盟国家在中美之间选择对冲战略,以趋利避险,使本国利益最大化。美国长期是东南亚国家的重要贸易伙伴和投资来源国,而中国的“经济快车”对东盟国家也具有极大的吸引力。新加坡、印尼、马来西亚等国都采取务实多元的政策,积极与中国开展经济合作;但新、印尼、马等老东盟国家仍视美国为维持地区力量平衡的重要外部力量,都与美国开展不同程度的军事合作,同时与中国也开展安全防务合作;菲律宾小马科斯政府积极投靠美国,以获得美国在南海问题上的支持;而越南取向“多元平衡”外交,以游走于中美之间获利。特朗普二度执政,将对盟友和伙伴国家提出更多要求,对东盟国家的对冲战略造成一定影响,同时也会给各方带来一些机遇。In the context of the“Indo-Pacific Strategy”vigorously pursued by the Trump and Biden administrations,the United States’game against China in Southeast Asia mainly focuses on building a“de-Sinicized”supply chain,providing a competitive alternative to the“Belt and Road Initiative”,and intensifying regional tensions around the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait issues.ASEAN countries have chosen hedging strategies between China and the US in order to seek profi t and avoid risk to maximize their own interests.In terms of economic and trade cooperation,Singapore pursues a pragmatic and diversifi ed strategy,while Indonesia and Malaysia swing between China and the US,and Vietnam seeks benefi ts from both sides.In terms of security and defense,Singapore,Indonesia and Malaysia tilt towards the United States,the Philippines“relies on the US to contain China”,and Vietnam pursues a strategy of“pluralistic balance”.At present,Trump’s return to the office makes ASEAN’s hedging strategy face new challenges.In this regard,China should study and judge the new trend of ASEAN’s policy adjustment,seize the opportunity,and actively promote the building of the China-ASEAN community with a shared future.

关 键 词：东盟国家 对冲战略 特朗普政府 中美关系 “命运共同体” “一带一路” 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]