2024年大选与美国政治的未来走向  

The 2024 U.S.Elections and the Future Trends of American Politics

作　　者：刁大明 Diao Daming

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《美国研究》2024年第6期9-33,M0004,共26页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

摘　　要：持续伴随着不确定性因素的2024年美国大选,本质上是2016年以来又一次以民怨情绪集中宣泄为主题的选举。民主党因经济与通胀、移民与边境管控以及应对外部危机等议题上的“在任者包袱”等不利原因而处于相对劣势,哈里斯的接棒也并未逆转最终的失败。特朗普再次利用民怨情绪以选民票的一定增长实现了“准连任”。2024年大选标志着美国政治步入保守派主导的新周期,两党在选民结构和区域分布维度上都将持续变化,两党政治精英也将迎来代际更新。大选后特朗普所面对的微弱的“一致政府”“遗产导向”的动机以及“少数总统”的状态都会塑造美国内外政策,而特朗普与金主不同以往的互动及其政策影响也值得密切关注。The 2024 U.S.elections accompanied by uncertainties is essentially an election with the theme of concentrated venting of public resentment since 2016.The Democratic Party is at a relative disadvantage due to unfavorable factors such as the burden of incumbency relating to such issues as the economy and inflation,immigration and border control,and its dealing with external crises.Kamala Harris's succession did not reverse the final failure.As a result,Donald Trump once again took advantage of public resentment to have achieved“quasi-re-election”with an increase in popular votes.The election marks the beginning of a new cycle of conservative-dominated American politics.The two parties will continue to change in terms of voter structure and regional distribution,and the political elites of both parties will also usher in generational renewal.The weak one-party government,the legacy-oriented motivation,and the minority presidential status which Trump faces after the elections,will shape U.S.domestic and foreign policies,and Trump's unprecedented interaction with his big campaign financial donors and its policy impact are also worthy of close attention.

关 键 词：美国政治 总统选举 2024年 特朗普 经济通胀 政治周期 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]