2024年美国大选与“后-后冷战时代”的美国外交战略  

The 2024 Elections and U.S.“Post-Post-Cold War”Foreign Policy

作　　者：节大磊[1] Jie Dalei

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《美国研究》2024年第6期34-57,M0004,M0005,共26页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金研究项目阶段性成果。

摘　　要：相对实力的变化以及国内民意的持续冲击,使美国冷战后长期奉行的自由主义霸权外交战略难以为继。特朗普第一任期和拜登政府共同为美国“后-后冷战时代”的外交战略描绘了基本轮廓:美国的所谓“领导权”的褪色,海外军事干预的减少,海外推广民主的兴趣大幅下降的同时价值观被工具化,以及在国际经济层面的保护主义和产业政策的兴起。一方面,特朗普即将开始的第二任期的外交战略在政治、军事、价值观和国际经济四个方面依然会体现出上述轮廓。另一方面,特朗普外交无疑也有自己的特点,包括在关税、与盟友关系以及俄乌和巴以等既有冲突等具体议题领域,特朗普与所谓“深层国家”之间的矛盾,以及以“疯子理论”为指导的外交风格。随着国内外形势的变化,美国“后-后冷战时代”的外交战略将持续演进。The shifts in both relative power and domestic public opinion have combined to render the U.S.long-standing post-Cold War foreign policy strategy of liberal hegemony unsustainable.The first Trump administration and the Biden administration have both exhibited the outlines of a“postpost-Cold War”U.S.foreign policy,including abdication and modification of the so-called U.S.leadership,reduction in overseas military intervention,decreasing interest in democracy promotion while turning democratic values to instruments for strategic competition,and increasing economic protectionism and industrial policy.A second Trump administration's foreign policy will very likely operate within those contours.Meanwhile,a Trumpian foreign policy will certainly have its distinctive features,including its positions on tariffs,alliance politics,and the ongoing Ukraine crisis and Israeli-Palestinian conflict,the tensions between Trump and the socalled“deep state,”and Trump's inclination for a“madman theory”of diplomatic bargaining.The U.S.“post-post-Cold War”foreign policy will continue to evolve as a result of a changing external environment and domestic political dynamics.

关 键 词：美国政治 2024年美国大选 外交战略 特朗普政府 拜登政府 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D771.2[政治法律—外交学]