终局之辩--2024年大选背景下的美国对华战略辩论  

The Debate on the“End State”:U.S.Strategic Debates on China Policy in the Context of the 2024 Presidential Election

作　　者：达巍 Da Wei

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系 [2]清华大学战略与安全研究中心

出　　处：《美国研究》2024年第6期58-71,M0005,共15页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金相关重大专项课题的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：2024年美国总统大选期间,美国战略界围绕对华战略的“终局”问题进行了新一轮辩论。“基于体制的终局”“基于秩序的终局”“基于政策的终局”以及“不设终局”,是辩论中的主要观点。辩论显示,美国对华战略认知趋于更加消极。目前很难预测特朗普上任后,以上何种观点会成为特朗普政府的战略选择,但是美国战略界对“终局”的共识还远未形成。During the 2024 U.S.presidential election,the American strategic community engaged in a new round of debates on the“end state”of its China strategy.The primary perspectives in the debate included the“regime-based end state,”the“order-based end state,”the“policy-based end state,”and the“no end state”approach.The debates revealed an increasingly negative perception of China within U.S.strategic discourse.It is currently difficult to predict which of these viewpoints might guide the Trump administration's strategic choices after he assumes office.However,regardless of future developments,the“end state”of U.S.strategy toward China remains far from being formed.

关 键 词：美国外交与军事 2024年美国总统大选 中美关系 对华战略辩论 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]