试析美国民主、共和两党在巴以问题上的共识、差异与影响  

Analyzing the U.S.Democratic and Republican Parties on the Palestinian-Israeli Issue:Consensus,Differences and Influences

作　　者：张文宗[1,2] 王苏舆 Zhang Wenzong;Wang Suyu

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所

出　　处：《美国研究》2024年第6期72-89,M0005,M0006,共20页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金重点项目“美国政治生态变化和两党对华政策比较研究”(项目编号:22AGJ011)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国对以色列的跨党派支持,特别是强有力的军事支持是巴以问题长期得不到解决的重要原因。冷战结束后,美国两党轮流主导的政府和国会在对待巴以“两国方案”上存在一定差异。民主党相对而言比较重视和推动“两国方案”,而共和党则更同情以色列右翼政府,特朗普首次执政时期几乎完全站在拒绝“两国方案”的以色列内塔尼亚胡极右翼政府一边。2023年10月新一轮巴以冲突爆发后,美国两党均支持加大对以色列的军援以摧毁哈马斯,维护以色列安全,但随着事态发展在支持程度上呈现一定差异性。这种政策差异离不开美国选民和犹太裔在巴以问题上的分化,与两党外交理念的差异和2024年大选也有关系。新一轮巴以冲突将一度被边缘化的巴以问题和“两国方案”重新置于国际政治的焦点。但特朗普赢得大选并重新执政后,可能实施比拜登政府更加亲以色列、敌视伊朗、冷落巴勒斯坦的政策,这将改变中东的地缘政治版图,反过来使美国国内支持巴以“两国方案”的力量被进一步削弱。U.S.bipartisan support for Israel,especially strong military support,is an important reason why the Palestinian-Israeli issue has remained unresolved for a long time.Since the end of the Cold War,the U.S.administration and Congress alternately led by the two parties have differed to some extent in their treatment of the two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.The Democratic Party attaches more importance to the two-state solution,while the Republican Party is more sympathetic to the right-wing government of Israel.The Donald Trump administration was almost entirely on the side of the far-right Netanyahu government,which rejected the twostate solution.After the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October 2023,both parties in the U.S.supported Israel by increasing military aid in order to destroy Hamas and safeguard Israel's security.However,as the situation develops,there are certain differences in the degree of the support.The policy differences are attributed not only to divided voters and American Jews on the Israeli-Palestinian issue,but also to the different diplomatic philosophies of the two parties and the 2024 U.S.presidential election.The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has put the once marginalized Palestinian-Israeli issue and the two-state solution back into the spotlight of international politics.However,after winning the presidential election and returning to the White House,Donald Trump may implement policies that are more pro-Israel and hostile to Iran than those of the Biden administration.This will change the geopolitical map of the Middle East,and in turn further weaken the U.S.domestic support for the twostate solution.

关 键 词：美国军事与外交 中东 巴以冲突 美国两党 “两国方案” 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系] D871.2[政治法律—政治学]