转移视线与中亚边界争端  

Diversionary Theory and Central Asian Border Disputes

作　　者：周明[1,2] 冯林贺 Zhou Ming;Feng Linhe(the Institute for Central Asian Studies,Lanzhou University;Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center,Lanzhou University;the School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学上海合作组织研究中心,兰州730000 [3]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第12期86-118,155,156,共35页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：2024年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”战略发展专项项目“俄乌冲突以来中亚地区形势的变化与中国的中亚政策研究”(项目批准号:2024jbkyzx003)的研究成果。

摘　　要：由于领土问题的特殊性,边界争端会对国家间关系产生严重的负面影响。近年来,中亚地区的边界争端呈现出升级与缓和两种趋势。为解释相似时期内不同边界争端的互动结果,作者基于转移视线战争理论,构建了一个以行为选择与目标选择为自变量的分析框架:首先,决策者基于自身的转移意愿与转移能力做出转移视线的行为选择。其次,转移国会认真筛选具备转移特性的目标国,转移价值与转移成本的衡量决定最终的目标选择。最后,在多方主体互动下,“示范—模仿”机制促进争端模式趋同。分析吉尔吉斯斯坦与塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦之间形成的两组边界争端案例可以发现:塔吉克斯坦转移意愿高且能力强,最终选择转移视线争端;吉尔吉斯斯坦意愿与能力较弱,所以选择了领土声索;乌兹别克斯坦没有转移意愿。对于塔吉克斯坦而言,与乌兹别克斯坦相比,吉尔吉斯斯坦在转移视线争端上的转移价值、制衡机制、联盟制约、实力平衡和信息充分等方面的条件更为成熟,加上吉乌之间的争端缓和使塔吉克斯坦产生了相对剥夺感,于是塔吉克斯坦选择吉尔吉斯斯坦作为转移视线的目标。吉乌之间的争端解决模式为吉塔边界争端的缓和提供了范本。上述中亚国家边界争端的案例分析尝试性地对转移视线战争理论做了一定的补充和完善。Owing to the specificity of territorial issues,border disputes have a serious negative impact on interstate relations.In recent years,border disputes in Central Asia have demonstrated two major trends:escalation and de-escalation.In order to explain the interactive results of different border disputes during similar periods,this article constructs an analytical framework based on the diversionary theory of war,with behavioral and target choices as independent variables.First,decision-makers make the behavioral choice of diversionary attention based on their own diversionary intentions and capabilities.Second,diversionary countries will carefully select target countries with diversionary characteristics,and the measurement of diversionary value and diversionary cost determines the final target choice.Finally,the"demonstration-imitation"mechanism promotes the convergence of dispute patterns through the interaction of multiple actors.The analysis of the two cases of border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan/Uzbekistan shows that Tajikistan has a high intent and a strong capacity to divert attention,and finally opts for the diversion of disputes,while Kyrgyzstan has a lower intent and ability,so it chooses to claim territory.Uzbekistan has no intention to divert attention.Tajikistan chooses Kyrgyzstan as the target of diversion because the latter is more mature for diversionary disputes than Uzbekistan in terms of diversionary value,checks and balances,alliance constraints,balance of power,and adequacy of information,and because the de-escalation of the dispute between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has created a sense of relative deprivation in Tajikistan.The dispute resolution model between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan provides an effective model for the de-escalation of the border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.By taking the border disputes of Central Asian countries as a case study,this article attempts to make necessary revisions and improvements to the diversionary theory of war.

关 键 词：中亚边界争端 转移视线争端 领土声索 国际冲突 中亚秩序 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]