国际争端与国内冲突升级——基于菲律宾摩洛分离主义运动升级的过程追踪研究  

International Disputes and Domestic Conflict Escalation:Process-Tracing the Moro Separatist Movement in the Philippines

作　　者：苏若林 刘芷君 Su Ruolin;Annabel Lau Zi Jun(the School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;the School of International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030 [2]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第12期119-152,156,157,共36页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(项目批准号:24CGJ007)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：一国国内冲突与其外部冲突之间存在何种关联是国际安全领域学者们关注的重要议题,相关研究往往围绕国内冲突对国际冲突的影响展开,但较少讨论国际冲突对国内冲突特别是冲突升级产生的因果作用。为此,作者聚焦于族群冲突这一国内冲突类型,分析了国际争端如何影响国内族群冲突升级这一问题。通过拓展经典的全内生冲突升级互动模型,将国际争端作为研究分析的逻辑起点,作者分析了国际争端如何在国内族群间的历史积怨和族群的跨国亲缘关系这两个驱动因素的影响下促进族群意识形态极化、族群内团结以及寻求盟友与调动物质资源这三个中间机制的相互作用机理,进而形成冲突升级螺旋并推动国内族群冲突升级。具体来说,当处于国际争端中的母国政府对外国的亲缘族群实施压制措施时,这会让那些与母国政府存在历史积怨的少数族群在心理上会倾向于支持与其有亲缘关系的跨国族群,并向母国政府提出不满和反抗。少数族群此时如果再遭受本国政府的暴力镇压,则该族群的意识形态可能会极化并激发族群的内部团结,促使族群寻求盟友以及调动物质资源反对本国政府,导致族群冲突升级。菲律宾与马来西亚沙巴领土争端引发的菲律宾摩洛分离主义运动升级案例验证了这一理论机制的有效性。The relationship between domestic conflicts and its external conflicts has attracted significant scholarly attention in the field of international security in recent years.While existing research often focuses on the impact of domestic conflicts on international conflicts,less attention has been paid to the causal effects of international conflicts on domestic conflicts,particularly conflict escalation.To address this gap,the authors focus on ethnic conflict as a type of domestic conflict and analyze how international disputes influence the escalation of domestic ethnic conflicts.By expanding the classic fully endogenous conflict escalation interaction model and using international disputes as the logical starting point of the analysis,the authors discuss how an international dispute,as an exogenous factor,promotes the interaction of three intermediate mechanisms(ethnic ideological polarization,intra-ethnic solidarity,and the mobilization of material resources by seeking allies)under the influence of two driving factors(historical grievances between domestic ethnic groups and transnational kinship ties).This interaction forms a spiral of conflict escalation,thereby driving the escalation of domestic ethnic conflicts.Specifically,when the homeland government involved in an international dispute suppresses kin-related ethnic groups abroad,minority ethnic groups within the homeland,especially those with historical grievances against the government,may psychologically align with their transnational kin and express dissatisfaction and resistance to the homeland government.If these minority groups then face further atrocities or repression by the homeland government,their ideological stance may become"polarized,"fostering intra-ethnic solidarity.This,in turn,motivates the group to seek allies and mobilize material resources to oppose the government,ultimately leading to the escalation of ethnic conflict.To validate this theoretical mechanism,the paper employs the process-tracing method to analyze the case of the territ

关 键 词：国际争端 族群冲突 冲突升级 跨国亲缘联系 冲突关联 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]