“第四次工业革命”与人类社会的政治秩序  

The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Political Order of Human Society

作　　者：郑永年 Zheng Yongnian

机构地区：[1]香港中文大学(深圳)公共政策学院,中国香港 [2]广州粤港澳大湾区研究院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第12期5-18,144,共15页

摘　　要：人类社会此前已经历了三次工业革命,即蒸汽时代、电气时代、信息时代。基于互联网和人工智能基础之上的“第四次工业革命”正在发生。人工智能表现出来五个显著特征:技术能力的高度集中性、技术管理的高度中央性、技术使用的高度垄断性、技术受众的高度分散性、国家间或者区域间竞争的高度封建性。技术进步对社会的影响是一个永恒的话题。必须明确意识到,技术的进步并不代表人类的进步。前三次工业革命都带来了人类文明的进步,“第四次工业革命”会导致的社会政治秩序,最有可能的是“牧民社会政治秩序”,也可能在国际和国内层面形成一种新型封建体制或者无政府状态。“牧民社会”对人类最大的冲击是智慧的不平等,倘若人类利用人工智能进行自我伤害的趋势继续下去,最终的结果必然是重返“奴隶式依赖”。因此,如果没有新的启蒙运动和新人文意识的崛起,“第四次工业革命”给人类文明带来的很可能是大倒退。人们需要直面这个问题,找出有效的纠正方法。ZhengYongnian Human society has undergone three industrial revolutions:the steam age,the electrical age,and the information age.Currently,the Fourth Industrial Revolution(4IR),driven by the internet and artificial intelligence(Al),is underway.AI exhibits five distinctive characteristics:high concentration of technical capabilities,high centralization of technology management,high monopoly of technology use,high dispersion of technology audiences,and a high feudal nature of competition among countries or regions.The impact of technological progress on society remains an eternal topic.It is crucial to recognize that technological advancement does not inherently equate to human progress.The previous three industrial revolutions fostered advancements in human civilization,while the 4IR is likely to usher in a new social and political order described as a pastoralist social and political order.This could potentially evolve into a novel form of feudalism or even anarchy at both the international and domestic levels.The most significant consequence of such a pastoralist society is the emergence of intelligence inequality.If the trend of utilizing AI for self-destructive purposes persists,the ultimate result will inevitably be a return to slave-like dependency.Therefore,without a new enlightenment or rising humanistic consciousness,the 4IR,unlike the previous three,may lead to a profound regression in human civilization.

关 键 词：第四次工业革命 人工智能 政治秩序 牧民社会 

分 类 号：F414[经济管理—产业经济] D50[政治法律—政治学]