美国在“印太”的拒止性威慑战略  

The American Denial Deterrence Strategy in"Indo-Pacific"Region

作　　者：景丽娜 Jing Lina

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学国家安全学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2024年第12期116-137,146,共23页

基　　金：2022年重庆市社会科学规划博士项目“国家安全视域下中国特色的战略传播体系构建研究”(项目号:2022BS009);2022年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“西方意识形态攻势新动向与中国国际话语权提升研究”(项目号:22YJCGJW010);西南政法大学2023年校级科研资助项目“中国参与全球网络安全治理机制研究”(项目号:2023XZZXYB-02)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国在“印太”地区的拒止性威慑是其“印太战略”推进的重要手段,呈现出强调多维度的拒止效用、灵活运用多种威慑手段、调动多元主体参与等显著特征,其加剧了大国在地区层面的战略博弈,引发了地区安全局势的紧张升级,并在一定程度上冲击了“印太”地区的力量平衡格局。然而,美国在“印太”地区的拒止性威慑仍将受到美国实力地位相对下降致使战略资源与协调空间受限、盟伴国家猜疑不信任致使战略合力形成受阻,以及中国等“印太”国家区域拒止能力提升致使战略环境不确定等因素的制约。从整体上看,现阶段“印太”地区多数国家在安全秩序塑造中的能力发展、主观意愿和坚定决心,将成为未来“印太”地区安全秩序的决定性变量。The denial deterrence of the United States in the"Indo-Pacific"region is an important means of advancing its"Indo-Pacific"strategy.It is characterized by emphasizing the multi-dimensional denial effect,flexible use of multiple deterrent means,and mobilizing the participation of multiactors.In the implementation of the denial deterrence strategy,the United States has intensified the strategic game between major countries at the regional level,triggered the escalation of tension in the regional security situation,and impacted the balance of power in the"Indo-Pacific"region to a certain extent.However,the United States'denial deterrence in the"Indo-Pacific"region will continue to be constrained by factors such as the restriction of strategic resources and coordination space caused by a relative decline in the strength and status,the formation of strategic synergy caused by partner countries'suspicion and distrust,and the uncertainty of the strategic environment caused by the improvement of the area denial ability of the"Indo-Pacific"countries,such as China.The ability development,subjective will,and firm determination of most countries in the"Indo-Pacific"region in shaping the security order at this stage will become the decisive variables of the future"Indo-Pacific"security order.

关 键 词：“印太战略” 拒止性威慑 美国军事 地区安全 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]