中国市场化利率调控体系改革思考  

Reflections on the Reform of China's Market-based Interest Rate Regulation System

作　　者：张成思[1,2] ZHANG Chengsi(School of Finance,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872 [2]中国财政金融政策研究中心,100872

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第10期189-208,共20页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD104)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：利率走廊和利率地板体系是市场化利率调控体系的可选模式,不同模式的选择与银行体系准备金充足程度相关。本文基于中国准备金相对充足程度视角研究现行市场化利率调控体系的改革逻辑,以期提高短端与长端利率调控的一致性,提升货币政策调控效果。本文将准备金充足程度划分为稀缺、海量和中等规模三个层级,依据这三个层级讨论中央银行如何选择不同的市场利率调控方式以优化调控效率。在具体分析中,我们考察准备金规模分别与准备金需求及中央银行公开市场操作交易两端主体(即中央银行和其他银行机构)的可交易资产规模对比情况,分析中国银行体系准备金相对充足程度的动态变化趋势。上述指标动态演化趋势及我国中央银行前期实践基础表明:我国准备金规模有逐渐靠近中等层级的趋势,利率调控体系具有灵活选择的空间。未来可以考虑在公开市场操作基础上,将准备金利率纳入货币政策工具箱,依据现实情况灵活选择市场化利率调控体系;通过调整政策利率,引导市场化利率的趋势性变化,提升短端与长端利率调控趋势一致性。这可以作为中国市场化利率调控体系的改革选项。The interest rate corridor and interest rate floor systems are two optional models within market-based interest rate regulation frameworks,with the choice between them being related to the adequacy of reserves within the banking system.This paper delves into the reform strategies for China's market-based interest rate regulation system,focusing on how to further enhance the effectiveness of the current interest rate corridor system.The starting point of this study is the relative adequacy of reserves in China's banking system,a characteristic that determines the scope for selecting interest rate regulation models.This paper begins with a comprehensive analysis of the current reserve situation in China's banking system and introduces a metric for the relative adequacy of reserves.Specifically,it examines the comparison between reserve levels and reserve demand,as well as the scale of tradeable assets between the two main parties in the central bank's open market operations(i.e.,the central bank and other banking institutions),analyzing the dynamic trends of the relative adequacy of reserves in China's banking system.This analysis considers not only the overall adequacy of reserves but also the adequacy of excess reserves.Given that these metrics measure the ratio of reserve supply to demand,they are comparable to international standards.Comparative analysis shows that China's reserve adequacy level is neither as scarce as that of the United States before the 2008 global financial crisis nor has it reached the massive levels seen after the crisis.Instead,it occupies a unique medium scale,providing more room for the selection of market-based interest rate regulation tools and systems in China while also presenting specific requirements for the reform of China's market-based interest rate regulation framework.Against this backdrop,this paper suggests that China's market-based interest rate regulation system could consider introducing an interest rate floor element to form a more flexible and adaptable hybrid model.Th

关 键 词：中央银行 货币政策 准备金利率 利率走廊 利率地板 

分 类 号：E52[军事—军事理论] E58