中小投资者保护与分析师盈余预测质量——基于投服中心持股试点的经验证据  

Small and Medium Investor Protection and Quality of Analysts'Earnings Forecasts——Based on the Empirical Evidence of the Shareholding Pilot of China Securities Investor Services Center

作　　者：欧阳才越 王治立 赵健梅[1] 赵巾慧 OUYANG Caiyue;WANG Zhili;ZHAO Jianmei;ZHAO Jinhui

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院会计系

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2024年第10期77-94,共18页Financial Regulation Research

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目“受托管理人风险管理能力对债券风险溢价的影响及作用路径研究”的资助,项目编号72102010。

摘　　要：中小投资者保护一直是我国资本市场监管关注的重点和难点问题,中证中小投资者服务中心(简称“投服中心”)是证监会为解决该问题推出的一项创新性监管尝试。本文利用投服中心于2016年2月在上海、广东(不含深圳)以及湖南三地开展持股行权试点的准自然实验情境,通过构造双重差分模型考察其持股行为对分析师盈余预测质量的影响。研究发现:(1)投服中心持股能显著提升分析师盈余预测质量;(2)机制分析表明,投服中心持股通过改善企业信息披露质量以及内部控制质量进而提升分析师盈余预测质量;(3)异质性分析发现,投服中心持股对分析师盈余预测质量的改善效应在非国有企业、内部治理水平较低以及外部监督环境较差的样本中更为显著。上述结论表明,投服中心作为有监管背景的证券金融类公益机构,能够有效发挥治理作用,对分析师盈余预测质量产生正向溢出效应。本文研究结论有助于丰富对投服中心持股的经济后果的相关研究,并为监管部门未来进一步优化中小投资者保护政策提供了参考。The protection of small and medium-sized investors is the focus and difficulty in China's capital market,and China Securities Investor Services Center(CSISC)is an innovative regulatory mechanism attempt initiated by China Securities Regulatory Commission.In this study,we take the quasi-natural experimental situation of CSISC shareholding pilot in Shanghai,Hunan and Guangdong(except Shenzhen)in February 2016to to investigate the influence of CSISC shareholding on the forecast quality of analysts'surplus.We finds that:(1)CSISC shareholding can significantly improve the forecast quality of analysts'earnings;(2)mechanism analysis reveals that the CSISC shareholding enhances the forecast quality of analysts'earnings by improving the quality of enterprise information disclosure and increasing the internal control quality;(3)heterogeneity analysis shows that the improvement effect of CSISC on analysts'forecast quality is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises,in firms with low internal governance level or poor external supervision.Our findings indicate that as a securities and financial public welfare institution with regulatory background,CSISC can effectively play a governance role,and have a positive spillover effect on the quality of analysts'earnings forecasts.The conclusions of this paper are helpful to enrich the research on the economic consequences of CSISC shareholding,and provide a reference for the regulatory authorities to further optimize the protection policies for small and medium-sized investors in the future.

关 键 词：投服中心 分析师盈余预测 信息披露质量 内部控制质量 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]