中国进口扩张的国际收入效应——基于美国人口调查的实证分析  

The International Income Effect of China's Import Expansion:Evidence from the U.S.Census

作　　者：魏浩[1] 封起扬帆 Wei Hao;Feng Qiyangfan(Business School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《财经研究》2024年第9期109-123,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA050)。

摘　　要：在积极扩大进口的背景下,研究中国进口贸易扩张能否以及如何创造国际福利具有重要的现实意义。文章利用1990—2010年美国人口抽样调查与772个通勤区的匹配数据,系统研究了中国进口扩张对美国居民实际收入的影响。研究表明:(1)中国进口扩张显著促进了美国居民实际收入的增长,在经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依旧成立。(2)中国进口扩张主要通过促进人力资源配置、提高教育回报率和缩小性别收入差距等途径提高了美国居民实际收入水平。(3)中国进口扩张不仅在金融危机期间“救助”了美国经济,而且还帮助美国减少了扶贫支出和贫困人口数量。(4)中国从美国的资本品进口扩张、消费品进口扩张的边际影响大于中间品进口扩张。(5)当同时考虑中国进口和中国出口的影响时,中国进出口贸易总扩张仍然能够显著提高美国居民的实际收入。文章的政策启示是,中国通过积极扩大进口惠及进口来源国居民,这为反驳“中国威胁论”、讲好中国故事提供了新证据。Since its entry to the WTO in 2001, China has not only supplied the global market with highquality and cost-effective products through its export expansion, but also spurred new economic growth opportunities worldwide through its increased imports. Existing literature has explored the impact of China's exports on the global economy, while there is a notable gap regarding how China's burgeoning imports affects the welfare of foreign residents. Utilizing China's WTO entry as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper addresses this gap by examining the impact of China's import expansion on the welfare of foreign residents.This paper first aligns tariff rates from China's 6-digit HS-coded sectors with U.S. SIC industries using a weight conversion file from Autor et al.(2013). It then weighs these rates by employment figures in SIC-coded industries within each U.S. commuting zone, as provided by David Dorn, to measure the exposure to China's imports at the commuting zone level. Subsequently, this paper utilizes U.S. Census data from 1990-2010,sourced from IPUMS, to pinpoint the commuting zones of residents and assess the impact of China's import expansion on the real incomes of U.S. residents employing a DID approach. The findings indicate that China's import expansion significantly enhances the real income level of U.S. residents by optimizing human resource allocation, increasing educational returns, and narrowing the gender income disparity. Furthermore, this paper observes that during the financial crisis, China's import expansion not only supported the U.S. economy, but also contributed to reduced poverty-related expenditures and a decrease in the population living below the poverty line. The impact of China's imports on the U.S. is more pronounced in capital and consumer goods compared to intermediate goods.The contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it extends the scholarly dialogue concerning China's trade growth and its implications for the global economy by exploring how China's import expansion affe

关 键 词：中国进口 进口关税 美国居民收入 美国劳动力市场 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易] F74[经济管理—世界经济] F24