城乡居民养老保险与家庭消费——基于微观数据的实证分析  

The Rural and Urban Household Pension Scheme and Household Consumption:Empirical Test Based on the Micro-data

作　　者：王树 苏杰 姜迪 Shu Wang;Jie Su;Di Jiang(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,China;Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100102,China;Library,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,China;Bill Museum,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang Guizhou 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京100102 [3]贵州财经大学图书馆,贵州贵阳550025 [4]贵州财经大学票据博物馆,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《会计与经济研究》2024年第2期126-141,共16页Accounting and Economics Research

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题(22GZQN08)。

摘　　要：研究采用2010-2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用面板模型、Heckman两步法和倾向得分匹配法(PSM),实证分析城乡居民养老保险和家庭消费之间的关系。采用合成面板数据发现,城乡居民养老保险参保人数的增加促进家庭消费率的提高;从消费结构来看,城乡居民养老保险可以促进家庭消费结构的优化,提高总消费中发展享受型消费的比例。考虑城乡和收入差异后发现,在城镇居民和中高收入群体中,养老保险对消费的促进作用更为明显;新农保和城居保合并为城乡居民养老保险后,城乡居民养老保险对低收入群体和农村家庭消费的促进作用不断提升。对2020年截面数据进行信贷约束分析后发现,相比于存在信贷约束的家庭,城乡居民养老保险对不存在信贷约束的家庭消费的促进作用更强。因此,我国应积极实施扩大城乡居民养老保险覆盖率等政策,促进家庭消费。The study uses the panel data,heckman two-step method and PSM model to test the relationship between the urban and rural household pension scheme and household consumption based on the CFPS database from 2010 to 2020.Using the composite panel data,it is found that the increase of the number of urban and rural residents participating in the pension scheme promotes the increase of household consumption rate.From the perspective of consumption structure,the urban and rural household pension scheme can promote the optimization of household consumption structure and increase the proportion of pleasure-oriented consumption in total consumption.After considering the difference between urban and rural areas and income,it is found that in urban residents and middle and high income groups,the promotion effect is more obvious.With the new rural scheme and urban residence scheme merged into urban and rural residents'pension scheme,the promoting effect of urban and rural residents'pension scheme on consumption will be increased in low-income groups and rural families.Using the cross-section data in 2020 to test the credit constraint,it is found that compared with families with credit constraint,the pension scheme promoting effect will be enhanced in families without credit constraint.So policies should be carried out like enlarging the pension coverage in order to promote the household consumption.

关 键 词：城乡居民养老保险 家庭消费 消费结构 城乡差异 信贷约束 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]