跨境基础设施项目风险耦合研究:基于系统动力学的视角  

Study on Risk Coupling of Cross-border Infrastructure Projects:Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：宫利利 王艳伟[2] GONG Lili;WANG Yanwei(Engineering College,Shandong Modern College,Jinan 250104,China;School of Architecture and Engineering,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China)

机构地区：[1]山东现代学院工学院,山东济南250104 [2]云南农业大学建筑工程学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2024年第6期123-129,共7页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区基金项目(72261035);云南省省院省校教育合作人文社科项目(SYSX202202);云南省应用基础研究农业联合专项面上项目(202101BD070001-061);山东现代学院本科教学改革研究项目(XM2023032)。

摘　　要：为研究跨境基础设施项目风险耦合关系对项目整体风险变化趋势,利用文献分析、专家打分法确定跨境基础设施项目关系分类和权重,并采用系统动力学方法来研究风险之间的耦合关系,借助Vensim PLE软件进行风险耦合的仿真动态模拟,并以中老铁路为例进行验证。结果表明,不同子系统之间的风险耦合作用对项目整体风险水平的影响最大。据此提出风险管控措施,以期为跨境基础设项目发展提供借鉴。This research aims to analyze the trend of project risk coupling relationship for cross-border infrastructure project risk management.The classification and weight of cross-border infrastructure project relations were determined by literature analysis,expert scoring and other methods.The coupling relationship between risks was studied by system dynamics,and the risk coupling simulation was carried out with the help of Vensim PLE software.China-Laos railway was taken as an example for verification.The result shows that the coupling between the risks of different subsystems has the greatest impact on the overall risk level of the project.Based on the results,corresponding risk management and control measurements are proposed,in order to provide reference for the development of cross-border infrastructure projects.

关 键 词：跨境基础设施项目 风险指标 风险耦合 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]