基于自适应Kriging-重要抽样法的载人潜水器载体框架结构可靠性分析  

Structural Reliability Analysis of Manned Submersible Framework with Adaptive Kriging-based Importance Sampling Method

作　　者：冯士超 陈鹏[1,2,3,4] 万正权 赵勰[1,2,3,4] 李艳青 FENG Shichao;CHEN Peng;WAN Zhengquan;ZHAO Xie;LI Yanqing(China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi 214082,China;Taihu Laboratory of Deepsea Technological Science,Wuxi 214082,China;State Key Laboratory of Deep-sea Manned Vehicles,Wuxi 214082,China;National Key Laboratory of Ship Structural Safety,Wuxi 214082,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶科学研究中心,无锡214082 [2]深海技术科学太湖实验室,无锡214082 [3]深海载人装备全国重点实验室,无锡214082 [4]船舶结构安全全国重点实验室,无锡214082

出　　处：《中国造船》2024年第5期78-86,共9页Shipbuilding of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2802003)。

摘　　要：为解决载人潜水器载体框架的结构可靠性计算问题,提出了一种改进的自适应Kriging-重要抽样法。该方法首先在较大样本空间内样本点较稀疏的情况下构建代理模型,计算得到和验证设计点,然后以设计点为中心构建最终的代理模型,并采用重要抽样法计算结构可靠性。分别用该方法、蒙特卡洛法和重要抽样法计算了算例的失效概率,计算结果表明所提出的方法具有较高的精度和效率。采用该方法对某载人潜水器载体框架进行结构可靠性分析,基于22次的有限元计算结果得到该载体框架的失效概率为5.18×10^(-8),同时灵敏度计算结果能较好地反映载体框架的结构失效特点。该方法有效降低了小概率失效问题求解的计算工作量,可用于复杂结构的可靠性计算分析。An improved adaptive Kriging-importance sampling method was proposed to calculate the reliability of the manned submersible framework.The technique consisted of constructing the surrogate model in the case of sparse sample points in a large sample space,calculating and validating the design point,constructing the final surrogate model centered on the design point,and calculating the reliability using the importance sampling method.Failure probabilities of two examples were calculated with the method proposed in the paper,the Monte Carlo method,and the importance sampling method respectively.Calculation results showed that the proposed method has high calculation accuracy and efficiency.The technique was used to calculate the failure probability of a manned submersible framework,which failure probability was 5.18×10^(-8) based on 22 finite element calculations.The sensitivity calculation reflected the failure characteristics of the framework well.This method can effectively reduce the computational workload of solving low failure probability problems and can be used for reliability analysis of complex structures.

关 键 词：载体框架 自适应Kriging 重要抽样法 可靠性 灵敏度 

分 类 号：U663.2[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]