1960—2022年河西走廊主要气候要素特征及气候生产潜力  

Variation of main climatic elements and climate production potential in Hexi Corridor during 1960-2022

作　　者：李军 周发元[1,3] 焦亮 李开明 李超灿[3] Jun Li;Fayuan Zhou;Liang Jiao;Kaiming Li;Chaocan Li(College of Urban Environment,Lanzhou City University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州城市学院城市环境学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]西北师范大学甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [3]天津城建大学环境与市政工程学院,天津300384

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2024年第6期14-25,共12页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划项目(21JR1RA319);甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室开放课题(GORS202102);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202310792012)。

摘　　要：河西走廊是甘肃省经济作物的集中种植区,也是中国重要的粮食生产基地。为探究全球气候变化背景下该地区主要气候要素及气候生产潜力的时空分布特征,明确气候生产潜力变化规律,利用1960—2022年河西走廊20个县(区)的年均气温和年降水量数据,采用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型以及Liebig最小因素定律估算了气候生产潜力,分析了气候及其生产潜力的时空变化特征,并利用CMIP6模式数据对SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5情景下河西走廊地区未来气候及气候生产潜力变化特征进行了预估。结果表明:近63 a河西走廊年均气温总体表现为上升趋势,年降水量整体表现为降低趋势。在降水量、地形地貌和海拔等因素的协同影响下,气温、蒸散生产潜力呈增加的趋势,气温生产潜力呈现出由北向南依次递减的空间特征分布,降水和标准气候生产潜力表现为降低趋势,低值区均集中于北部近荒漠地带。在4种预估情景下,南部高海拔的绿洲地带和北部近沙漠地带气候类型分别向“暖湿化”和“暖干化”的趋势发展。The Hexi Corridor is a key region for economic crop production in Gansu Province,and also an important grain production base in China.In order to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the main climatic elements and climate production potential in this region under the background of global climate change,and to clarify the patterns of change in climate production potential,this study utilized annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2022,collected from 20 counties and districts in the Hexi Corridor.The climate production potential of the Hexi Corridor was estimated using the Miami model,Thornthwaite Memorial model,and Liebig's law of the minimum factor.The spatial-temporal variation characteristics of climate elements and climate production potential were also analyzed.Furthermore,future climate changes and related production potential in the Hexi Corridor were projected using CMIP6 model data,under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)including SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The results indicate that the average temperature in the Hexi Corridor has shown an overall increasing trend,while the average precipitation has shown an overall decreasing trend over the past 63 years.Under the combined influence of precipitation,topography,and altitude differences,the temperature and potential evapotranspiration have shown an increasing trend,with the temperature potential exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of gradually decreasing from north to south.However,the precipitation,and standard climate production potential have shown a decreasing trend,with low values concentrated in the northern desert area.Under the four projected scenarios,the climatic types in the southern high-altitude oasis zones and the northern near-desert regions respectively show trends towards"warm-wetting"and"warm-drying"developments.

关 键 词：年均气温 年降水量 气候生产潜力 时空特征 河西走廊 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]