2024年南京市登革热输入风险及本地传播风险评估分析  

Evaluation of the risk of imported dengue fever and localspreading through mosquito vectors in Nanjing in 2024

作　　者：李成国[1] 李碧涵 宋丙栋 陈学敏 闵玥 张守刚[2] LI Chengguo;LI Bihan;SONG Bingdong;CHEN Xuemin;MIN Yue;ZHANG Shougang(Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China;Institute of Disinfection and Vector Control,Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京310000 [2]南京市疾病预防控制中心消毒与病媒生物防制科,江苏南京310000

出　　处：《中华卫生杀虫药械》2024年第6期568-572,共5页Chinese Journal of Hygienic Insecticides and Equipments

基　　金：南京市医学科学发展项目(YKK21176)。

摘　　要：目的了解2024年南京市登革热病例输入风险和蚊媒本地传播风险,为防止登革热本地传播,指导应急准备、提早部署防控工作,并为今后针对性防控措施的制定和完善提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法对2018—2023年南京市登革热病例及蚊虫流行情况进行分析。结果南京市2018—2023年输入性登革热报告病例主要分布于6—11月。2019、2020、2021、2023年布雷图指数均7月最高,2018年和2022年年布雷图指数最高值分别出现在8月和6月。2018、2019、2021、2022年成蚊密度最高值出现在9月,2020年和2023年成蚊密度最高值出现在7月。2018年旧轮胎堆放地的成蚊密度最高,2019—2023年居民区的成蚊密度最高。应急监测启动时,布雷图指数和成蚊密度时有超标,但对输入性登革热疫点应急控制后,蚊媒密度下降且监测指标趋于平稳,发生本地传播的风险评估为“中等”。结论2024年南京市登革热输入风险较高,本地传播风险中等。6—11月是南京市登革热的输入高峰期,也是可能引发本地传播和流行的高峰期,应加强居民区蚊虫密度的监测和控制,规范地使用杀虫剂开展登革热应急处置,建立动态分级预警系统和合作机制,控制输入性登革热疫情,避免发生本地疫情的传播。Objective To understand the risk of imported dengue fever cases and local mosquito-borne transmission in Nanjing in 2024,so as to scientifically develop prevention and control strategies and measures for local transmission of dengue fever,guide emergency preparedness,and deploy prevention and control work in advance.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the dengue fever cases and mosquito prevalence in Nanjing from 2018 to 2023.Results The peak period of dengue fever incidence in Nanjing was June to Novermber.In 2019,2020,2021,and 2023,the hightest Breteau index(BI)were all in July,while in 2018 and 2022,the highest BI values were in August and June,respectively.The highest adult mosquito density in 2018,2019,2021,and 2022 were in September,while the highest adult mosquito density in 2020 and 2023 were in July.The highest adult mosquito density was observed in waste tire stacking sites in 2018,and in residential areas from 2019 to 2023.When the emergency monitoring was activated,the BI and adult mosquito density exceeded the standard.After emergency control of the imported dengue fever,the mosquito vector density decreased and the monitoring indicators tended to stabilize.The risk of local transmission was assessed as“medium”.Conclusion In 2024,the risk of imported dengue fever in Nanjing is relatively high,and the risk of local transmission is moderate.The period from June to Novermber is the peak period for local transmission and prevalence of dengue fever in Nanjing.Especially,mosquito control in residential areas should be strengthened,and standardizing the use of insecticides for dengue fever emergency response.Establishing a dynamic grading warning system and cooperation mechanism is extremely important to control the spread of the import and local epidemic dengue fever.

关 键 词：登革热 蚊媒传染病 风险评估 

分 类 号：R183.5[医药卫生—流行病学]