2000—2020年东北地区玉米大豆种植格局演变及其气候驱动机理  

Change of maize-soybean cropping patterns and its link with climate warming in Northeast China between 2000 and 2020

作　　者：杜国明[1] 马梦琪 张瑞 刘正佳[3] DU Guoming;MA Mengqi;ZHANG Rui;LIU Zhengjia(School of Public Administration and Law,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学公共管理与法学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150030 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第11期2251-2262,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1500101)。

摘　　要：【目的】气候变暖对作物种植格局具有显著影响。本文旨在探究气候变暖与作物种植格局之间关系的基础上,明确不同气候因子对作物生长的贡献程度,从而为区域种植业结构调整及布局优化提供参考。【方法】本文基于东北地区2000、2010、2020年作物分类数据,运用GIS格网、地学信息图谱等方法,对东北地区玉米和大豆的种植规模和模式变化进行分析,使用最大熵模型揭示作物种植时空格局变动的影响因素。【结果】①东北地区玉米大豆种植规模呈现出玉米增、大豆减的变化趋势。黑龙江省玉米种植面积增幅最大,为69.01%,吉林省大豆种植面积降幅最大,为68.21%。②2000—2020年东北地区玉米和大豆种植过渡带“北移”趋势显著。其中,2000—2010年玉米和大豆种植过渡带在松嫩平原地区向北移动了约129.10 km;2010—2020年在三江平原地区向北移动了约283.80 km。③影响东北地区玉米种植适宜性和种植区域移动变化的主导生物气候因子分别为最热季度的平均温度和最干燥季度的平均温度。玉米和大豆种植过渡带北界主要位于≥10℃活动积温[2900,3100)℃范围内,随着积温带的不断北移,种植过渡带随之移动。【结论】2000—2020年东北地区玉米和大豆的种植结构和布局受温度的影响发生显著变化。未来需更加关注气候变化对作物种植的影响,以推动农业生产的持续健康发展,确保粮食安全的长期稳定。[Objective]Climate warming has a significant impact on crop cultivation pattern.The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between climate warming and crop cultivation pattern,and to clarify the degree of contribution of different influencing factors to crop growth,so as to provide reference for regional cultivation structure adjustment and layout optimization.[Methods]Based on the 2000,2010,and 2020 crop classification data,this study analyzed the trend of changes in maize and soybean cultivation scale and pattern under climate warming using the GIS grids and geo-information maps.The maximum entropy model was employed to reveal the main factors driving the change in the spatiotemporal crop planting patterns.[Results](1)In terms of scale,the change in the planting area indicated an increase in maize planting area;conversely,the soybean planting area decreased.Heilongjiang Province,the largest increase in maize planting area of 69.01%,Jilin Province,the largest decrease in soybean planting area of 68.21%.(2)The transitional zone for maize and soybean cultivation in the Northeast region shifted noticeably northward between 2000 and 2020.Among them,the transition zone for maize and soybean cultivation moved northward by about 129.10 km in Songnen Plain from 2000 to 2010,and moved northward by about 283.80 km in Sanjiang Plain from 2010 to 2020.(3)The dominant bioclimatic factors influencing changes in the suitability of maize planting and the movement of planting areas in the Northeast were the average temperature of the hottest season and the average temperature of the driest season,respectively.The northern boundary of the maize and soybean planting transitional zone is mainly located within the≥10℃active cumulative temperature range of 2900-3100℃,and as this cumulative temperature zone continues to move northward,the planting transitional zone moves along with it.[Conclusion]The planting structure and layout of maize and soybean in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020 were significantly changed b

关 键 词：气候变暖 种植格局 影响因素 积温 地学信息图谱 东北地区 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] S513[农业科学—农业基础科学] S565.1