中国沿海港口群港城协同发展的动态演进及差异  

Dynamic Evolution and Differences of Coordinated Development of China’s Coastal Port Clusters

作　　者：李振福 崔万达 周玉涛 LI Zhenfu;CUI Wanda;ZHOU Yutao(School of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2024年第6期60-66,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD147)。

摘　　要：从港口群视角出发,运用耦合协同度模型测算2001—2020年中国46个主要沿海港口及城市的耦合协同水平。借助核密度分析、马尔科夫链模型及Dagum基尼系数分解等数理统计方法,进一步分析五大沿海港口群港城协同发展水平的动态演进以及差异。结果表明:(1)我国沿海港口城市协同度总体呈逐年上升趋势,但缺乏新的增长动力,导致增速逐渐下降。(2)长三角港口群和东南港口群的港城协同发展水平提升能力较强,五大沿海港口群港城协同发展水平的跨级别提升需要两年以上的时间。(3)2001—2020年沿海港城协同发展水平总体差异、港口群内部差异及港口群间差异均呈波动下降趋势,港口群间差异是沿海港城协同发展差异的主要来源,占总体差异的35%。建议通过政府政策引导、加强巩固港口群内部协作、促进港口群横向合作、优化港口群空间格局等方式,促进我国沿海港口群高质量发展。From the perspective of port group,the coupling cooperation degree model is used to estimate the coupling cooperation level of 46 major coastal ports and cities in China from 2000 to 2020.Kernel density analysis,Markov chain model and Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition were used to further analyze the dynamic evolution of coastal port and city collaborative development level of five major port groups and the differences among different port groups.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the level of coordinated development of all port groups shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the overall Gini coefficient shows a steady downward trend.The phenomenon of multipolar differentiation was obvious,it began to transition to unimodal and entered a steady development state.(2)The Gini coefficient of southwest port group decreased gradually,while the Pearl River Delta port group maintains a high level all the time.The year and amplitude of the Gini coefficient fluctuation of the Yangtze River Delta port group,the Bohai Sea port group and the southeast port group do not show unity.(3)From 2001 to 2020,the gap of coordinated development level among port groups has an alternating phenomenon of repeated rise and decline,but the overall trend is downward.It is suggested that through the guidance of government policies,strengthen and consolidate the internal cooperation of port groups,effectively promote the horizontal cooperation of port groups,and optimize the spatial pattern of port groups,so as to promote the development of China’s coastal port groups to the direction of high quality.

关 键 词：沿海港口 港口群 港城协同 Dagum基尼系数 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F224