中国乡村地域系统人-地-业耦合协调发展状态多情景模拟  

Multi-scenario Simulation of Population-Land-Industry Coupling and Coordinated Development of Rural Area System in China

作　　者：陈义勇[1,2] 吕妍 洪武扬 郭仁忠 CHEN Yiyong;LYU Yan;HONG Wuyang;GUO Renzhong(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China;State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学建筑与城市规划学院,广东深圳518060 [2]深圳大学亚热带建筑与城市科学全国重点实验室,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2024年第6期123-130,共8页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(42293270)。

摘　　要：推进乡村振兴的关键问题在于探索未来乡村地域系统耦合协调发展的科学路径。在梳理乡村地域系统理论的基础上,构建中国乡村地域系统人-地-业耦合协调评价模型和乡村地域系统动力学模型,模拟2021—2070年不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下乡村发展情景。结果表明:中国未来乡村地域系统耦合协调度稳步上升,人口、产业子系统得分增长速度快于土地子系统,土地子系统是决定系统耦合协调发展的关键。继续当前的发展路径虽能保持较高的经济增速和城镇化水平,但高经济增速会对耕地保护、资源环境带来较大威胁,人-地-业协调发展面临挑战。可持续发展的SSP1路径是我国乡村地域系统走向高水平耦合协调的最佳选择。未来发展要积极提升乡村人口受教育程度,稳步推进城镇化高质量发展。国土空间规划要推动乡村建设用地减量、劳均耕地面积指数型增长;坚定不移地走可持续发展道路,推动乡村人-地-业协调发展。The key issue to promoting rural revitalization was exploring the scientific path for the integrated and harmonious development of the rural territorial system in the future.On the basis of having combed the theories of rural territorial systems,the paper built a coupled and coordinated evaluation model of China’s rural territorial systems,constructed a system dynamics model of rural territories,and simulated the rural development scenarios under different shared socioeconomic pathways during the period of 2021—2070.The results showed that the degree of coupled coordination of the rural territorial system was expected to steadily increase in the future,and the scores of the population and industry subsystems were predicted to grow faster than those of the land subsystem,which was the key to determining the coupled and coordinated development of the system.Continuing the current development path could have maintained a high economic growth rate and urbanization level,but the high economic growth rate would have brought a greater threat to the protection of arable land,resources,and the environment,and the coordinated development of people-land-industry would have faced challenges.The SSP1 path of sustainable development was considered to be the best choice for China’s rural territorial system to move towards a high level of coupled coordination.The study suggests that,for future development,it is necessary to actively improve the education level of the rural population and steadily promote the high-quality development of urbanization;to promote the reduction of rural construction land and the exponential growth of the arable land per worker in national land spatial planning;and to unswervingly follow the path of sustainable development and promote the coordinated development of people-land-industry in the countryside.

关 键 词：乡村地域系统 人-地-业 耦合协调度 多情景模拟 乡村地理学 

分 类 号：F119.9[经济管理—国际贸易]