中国与“一带一路”主要国家贸易虚拟水流动时空特征及可持续性分析  

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Sustainability Analysis of Virtual Water Flows between China and the Major Countries along“the Belt and Road”

作　　者：林海[1] 李显 LIN Hai;LI Xian(School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;CLP Construction New Energy Group Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中电建新能源集团股份有限公司,北京100037

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2024年第6期158-164,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD119)。

摘　　要：基于拓展的资源-环境投入产出模型,对中国与“一带一路”主要国家贸易虚拟水转移量进行测算,并结合部门用水效率、水资源承载力对虚拟水流动时空特征、产业结构特征及可持续利用情况进行分析。结果表明:2013—2022年,中国从“一带一路”主要国家净进口虚拟水量逐年增加,由-25.24亿m^(3)增至58.87亿m^(3),中国每年分别从东北亚、西亚北非和中亚地区净进口虚拟水12.24亿m^(3),24.28亿m^(3)和1.06亿m^(3),分别向南亚、中东欧和东盟地区净出口虚拟水41.06亿m^(3),16.92亿m^(3)和7.75亿m^(3);中国主要在农业、采矿业等能源产品供应业净进口虚拟水,在纺织业、机械电子设备制造业等行业净出口虚拟水,贸易虚拟水空间流动部分满足了可持续发展需求。中国与“一带一路”主要国家贸易潜力的释放有助于促进跨区域水资源的合理配置,有效缓解水资源供需矛盾。Based on the extended resource-environment input-output model,the water use efficiency of various sectors in China and the virtual water transfer volume of trade with major countries of“the Belt and Road”from 2013 to 2022 were measured,and the temporal and spatial characteristics,industrial structure characteristics and sustainable utilization of virtual water flow were analyzed based on the carrying capacity index of water resources.The results show that China’s net imports of virtual water from“the Belt and Road”region increases from-2.524 billion m^(3) to 5.887 billion m^(3),China’s average annual net imports of virtual water from Northeast Asia,West Asia,North Africa and Central Asia are 1.224 billion m^(3),2.428 billion m^(3) and 106 million m^(3),and the net export of virtual water to South Asia,Central and Eastern Europe and ASEAN is 4.106 billion m^(3),1.692 billion m^(3) and 775 million m^(3);China mainly imports virtual water in agriculture,energy supply,minerals and other industries.Net export of virtual water in industries such as textiles,mechanical and electronic equipment manufacturing,metal products and smelting and rolling industry.The continuous release of China’s trade potential with the“Belt and Road”will help promote the rational allocation of cross-regional water resources and effectively alleviate the contradiction between water supply and demand.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 虚拟水 投入产出法 贸易结构 可持续发展 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F742[经济管理—国际贸易]