泰顺县中华穿山甲栖息地适宜性评价  

Habitat suitability assessment of Chinese pangolins (Manis pentadactyla) in Taishun County

作　　者：刘雷雷 余盛武 王诗丰 章书声 程宏毅[4] LIU Leilei;YU Shengwu;WANG Shifeng;ZHANG Shusheng;CHENG Hongyi(The Management Center of Wuyanling National Natural Reserve in Zhejiang,Wenzhou 325500,China;Qianjiangyuan Baishanzu National Park Longquan Protection Center,Qingtian 323700,China;Qingtian County Forestry Bureau,Lishui 323900,China;Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Wildlife Biotechnology and Protective Utilization,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江乌岩岭国家级自然保护区管理中心,浙江温州325500 [2]钱江源-百山祖国家公园龙泉保护中心,浙江丽水323700 [3]青田县林业局,浙江青田323900 [4]浙江师范大学野生动物生物技术与保护利用省重点实验室,浙江金华321004

出　　处：《浙江师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2025年第1期60-67,共8页Journal of Zhejiang Normal University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：浙江省重点研发计划资助项目(2021C02044);2023年度中央林业草原生态保护恢复资金资助项目,泰顺县科技资助项目。

摘　　要：通过构建中华穿山甲在泰顺县的潜在分布预测模型,评估模型的预测精度,识别影响中华穿山甲分布的关键环境因子,预测泰顺县内中华穿山甲的潜在适宜分布区域.采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)构建中华穿山甲的潜在分布预测模型,利用AUC值评估模型的预测精度以分析环境变量的贡献率和重要性排序,并识别关键影响因子;基于响应曲线分析中华穿山甲的生境偏好,根据MaxEnt模型的预测结果,确定泰顺县内的潜在适宜分布区域.结果表明:训练集AUC值为0.838,模型预测结果达到“好”的标准,可信度较高,坡度、距道路距离和距居民点距离是影响中华穿山甲分布的前三大关键因子,累计贡献率高达84.8%;中华穿山甲最适宜的生境条件为:海拔低于600 m、距离居民点和道路超过100 m、距离水源100~800 m、坡度大于30°、南坡及西南坡方向;泰顺县内中华穿山甲的高中适宜分布区总面积约为459.5 km^(2),占县域面积的28.5%;中华穿山甲偏好相对封闭、远离人类干扰活动的生境,具体为较低海拔、地形平缓、不受人为干扰的常绿阔叶林或针阔混交林.研究为中华穿山甲的保护管理提供了科学依据,如优先保护高中适宜区域、限制人类活动干扰等,未来可进一步开展穿山甲种群动态监测,了解其实际分布状况,并采取针对性的保护措施.It was aimed to develop a prediction model for the potential distribution of Chinese pangolins in Taishun County,evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model,identify the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of Chinese pangolins,and predict the potential suitable distribution area of Chinese pangolins in Taishun County.The maximum entropy model(MaxEnt) was used to establish prediction model for the potential distribution of Chinese pangolins.The prediction accuracy of AUC was used to analyze the contribution rate and importance ranking of environmental variables,identify the key influencing factors,analyze the habitat preference of Chinese pangolins based on the response curve,and determine the potential distribution in Taishun County according to the prediction results of MaxEnt model suitable distribution area.The AUC value of the training set was 0.838,and the model prediction results reached the standard of "good" with high reliability.Slope,distance from roads and distance from settlements were summarized as the top three key factors affecting the distribution of Chinese pangolins,with a cumulative contribution rate of 84.8%.The most suitable habitat conditions for Chinese pangolins were concluded as:elevation less than 600 m,distance from settlements and roads more than 100 m,distance from water source between 100 and 800 m,slope greater than 30°,south slope and southwest slope direction.The total suitable distribution area of Chinese pangolins in Taishun County was about 459.5 km^(2),accounting for 28.5% of the county area.Chinese pangolins preferred relatively closed habitat away from human disturbance,specifically evergreen broad-leaved forest or mixed forest with gentle terrain at lower elevation and without human disturbance.The relavant findings could provide a scientific basis for the conservation and management of the Chinese pangolins,such as giving priority to the protection of suitable areas and limiting the interference of human activities.It was suggested also that further mon

关 键 词：适宜栖息地 MaxEnt模型 中华穿山甲 环境因子 贡献率 

分 类 号：Q955[生物学—动物学]