基于指标重要度和风险度的民机试飞风险评估方法研究  

Research on the Risk Assessment Method of Civil Aircraft Flight Test Based on Importance and Risk Degree of Indicators

作　　者：王亮 冯勇博 叶露[1] Wang Liang;Feng Yongbo;Ye Lu(School of Flight Technology,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院飞行技术学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《科技通报》2024年第12期91-100,共10页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(12002368);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(J2020-002,J2021-008)。

摘　　要：为更全面、科学地评估民机试飞过程中的潜在风险,本文采用云模型结合博弈论组合赋权的方法,融合指标的重要度和风险度综合评估试飞风险。首先,通过大量文献与规章调研对试飞风险指标进行筛选,构建民机试飞风险评价指标体系;其次,利用序关系分析法和熵值法分别计算出重要度主观权重与风险度客观权重,借助博弈论组合赋权法融合主客观权重以获得风险指标的综合权重;最后,采用云模型评价算法,对民机试飞风险水平进行综合评估,并通过多个事故报告与国内某机型试飞工程师的工程实践对评估结果进行验证。研究结果表明:使用本融合方法对民机试飞预测的高风险指标与实际情况大致吻合,证实该方法具有相当的可靠性,有利于预判试飞过程中潜在的高风险指标,并针对性提出科学的改进措施,进而有效预防试飞风险发生,显著提升民机试飞安全水平。In order to more comprehensively and scientifically assess the potential risks in the process of civil aircraft flight test,this research uses a cloud model combined with game-theoretic portfolio empowerment to comprehensively assess the risk of flight test by integrating the importance and risk degree of indicators.Firstly,the flight test risk indicators were screened through a large number of literature and regulatory research,and the civil aircraft flight test risk evaluation index system was constructed.Secondly,the subjective weights of importance and objective weights of risk degree were calculated by using the order relation analysis method and entropy weight method,and the subjective and objective weights were integrated by using the game-theoretic portfolio empowerment to obtain the comprehensive weights of the risk indicators.Finally,by using the cloud model evaluation algorithm,the risk level of civil aircraft flight test was comprehensively evaluated,and the evaluation results were verified by accident reports and the engineering practice of domestic flight test engineers of a certain aircraft type.The results of the study show that the high-risk indicators predicted by the integration method for civil aircraft flight test roughly coincide with the actual situation,confirming that the method is quite reliable,which is conducive to the prediction of high-risk indicators that may occur in the flight test process,and put forward scientific improvement measures,which can effectively prevent the occurrence of the risk of flight test,and significantly improve the safety level of the civil aircraft flight test.

关 键 词：民机试飞 指标重要度 指标风险度 云模型 风险评估 

分 类 号：V217.1[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]