基于路网连通可靠度的边坡韧性提升决策优化方法  

A decision optimization method for resilience-enhanced strategies for slopes based on road network connectivity reliability

作　　者：何正迎 黄雨[1,2] AKIYAMA Mitsuyoshi 李垠柯 郭桢 FRANGOPOL Dan M. HE ZhengYing;HUANG Yu;AKIYAMA Mitsuyoshi;LI YinKe;GUO Zhen;FRANGOPOL Dan M.(Department of Geotechnical Engineering,College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,School of Creative Science and Engineering,Waseda University,Tokyo 1698555,Japan;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Engineering Research Center for Advanced Technology for Large Structural Systems(ATLSS Center),Lehigh University,Bethlehem 18015,USA)

机构地区：[1]同济大学土木工程学院地下建筑与工程系,上海200092 [2]同济大学土木工程防灾减灾全国重点实验室,上海200092 [3]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,School of Creative Science and Engineering,Waseda University,Tokyo 1698555,Japan [4]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Engineering Research Center for Advanced Technology for Large Structural Systems(ATLSS Center),Lehigh University,Bethlehem 18015,USA

出　　处：《中国科学：技术科学》2024年第12期2392-2404,共13页Scientia Sinica(Technologica)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(批准号:41831291)资助。

摘　　要：降雨诱发的群发性滑坡,往往导致多处路段交通中断和路网连通性受损,降低城市道路基础设施网络韧性.鉴于现阶段针对单体边坡的优化设计方法难以最大程度减轻其对路网的广泛影响并提升区域韧性,本文提出了一种基于路网连通可靠度的边坡韧性提升优化决策分析方法.首先,采用广义帕累托分布(generalized Pareto distribution,GPD)评估降雨灾害强度.接着,通过地质调查确定路网中脆弱边坡群位置,并基于边坡渗流-稳定性力学模型进行易损性评估.然后,考虑强降雨下边坡状态的空间相关性,并结合图论,通过蒙特卡罗方法计算路网连通可靠度.最后,基于边坡韧性提升后的路网连通可靠度对道路边坡进行重要度排序,在资源有限条件下,优先加固对路网连通可靠性影响大的脆弱边坡,以最大化区域路网连通性.将所提方法应用于浙江省丽水市易受降雨滑坡群影响的路网,验证了其有效性.结果表明:所提方法得到的最优边坡韧性提升策略显著提升了路网连通可靠度,为将基于可靠度的单体边坡设计转向关注区域功能性的边坡群韧性提升策略的研究范式奠定了基础.Rainfall-induced landslides frequently result in transportation disruptions and compromised network connectivity,diminishing regional disaster resilience.Given that current reliability-based methods for individual slope reinforcement are ineffective in reducing the widespread impact of landslide clusters on road networks,a novel decision optimization method for resilience-enhanced strategies for slopes based on road network connectivity reliability is proposed in this study.The rainfall hazard is assessed using the generalized Pareto distribution.Fragility assessment for the vulnerable slopes identified by geological surveys is performed based on slope seepage-stability analysis.Considering the spatial correlation of slope states under heavy rainfall,the connectivity probability of the road network is estimated by leveraging graph theory and using the Monte Carlo simulation.The road network connectivity reliabilities considering different resilience-enhanced strategies for slopes are calculated to prioritize the slope reinforcements.Under limited resources,vulnerable slopes with significant impacts on road network connectivity are given priority reinforcement to maximize regional network connectivity.The proposed method is illustrated using a hypothetical network in Lishui City,Zhejiang Province,known for its susceptibility to rainfall-induced landslides.Results indicate that the proposed method significantly improves network connectivity through the optimal resilience-enhanced strategies for slopes.This study lays the foundation for a paradigm shift from reliability-based individual slope design to resilience enhancement strategies focusing on the functionality of regional slopes.

关 键 词：降雨滑坡群 边坡加固 路网连通性 蒙特卡罗模拟 抗灾韧性 

分 类 号：U416.14[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]